The appointment of 73-year-old Michel Barnier as France’s new prime minister is an ironic dénouement to a political farce of Olympian proportions.
It all started with the European parliamentary elections in early June. French voters gave the populist Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) 31%, making them the largest party representing France in Brussels. In response to that, President Emmanuel Macron dissolved France’s 577-seat Assemblée Nationale and called a snap legislative election.
From there, the plot twists and turns, but it’s worth following if you have a dark sense of humour.
France’s legislative elections have two rounds. Those districts in which no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round go into the second round.
In the first round, the three main blocs won the popular vote as follows:
RN plus a far-right ally: 33%. (On its own, RN got 29%.)
Left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP, a pre-electoral coalition of four main parties under a collective leadership): 28%.
Centrist Ensemble (a pre-electoral coalition of five main parties formed under President Macron): 21%.
In short, Macron’s mob got cut down on both left and right – in a fight that he’d started.
But only 76 seats were decided in round one, so 501 districts went to the second round. Because it’s possible to have more than two competitors for one seat in the second round, 306 constituencies looked initially like they’d have three-way runoffs and five would have four-way runoffs. But many candidates for the left and centrist blocs tactically withdrew in order to guide voters towards a single non-RN candidate. (Anyone but the far-right RN!) Consequently, only 89 three-way and two four-way runoffs remained after withdrawals.
These anti-RN tactics succeeded. In the second round, the three main blocs won the popular vote as follows:
RN plus ally: 37%.
Left-wing NFP: 26%.
Centrist Ensemble: 24.5%.
But the final percentages of seats were:
RN plus ally: 24.6%
Left-wing NFP: 31.2%
Centrist Ensemble: 27.6%.
Among numerous stragglers were the conservative Republicans with 6.8% of seats.
The NFP coalition took the most seats and claimed victory, while the RN, which won more votes than any other party or coalition, effectively came third. The disproportionate outcome is a feature of France’s electoral system, exaggerated by tactical withdrawals to block the RN. But none of the three coalitions won a parliamentary majority, and they all hate each other.
Nonetheless, NFP claimed the right, as “winners”, to have their policies implemented and to say who should be appointed as prime minister. They nominated 37-year-old Lucie Castets, a “previously unknown municipal technocrat” (Politico), for prime minister.
In France, however, the President will appoint the PM.
In the meantime, Paris had to stage the Olympics. So could politics please wait a while?
Lucie Castets said, “I understand why people feel the election has been stolen from them.” (Guardian). Who stole their election, then, and how did they pull off such a heist? I’ll leave that question to the reader.
By ignoring Castets and appointing the conservative Republican Michel Barnier as PM, Macron has built a bridge from the centre to the right, to ensure at least that the upcoming budget gets passed. Barnier is a veteran careerist and weather-vane politician. If you recognise his name, it’s because he was the EU’s lead negotiator during Brexit. He has a reputation for getting people to work together through complex issues – skills that will be needed as he works his charm on the RN.
The RN kept quiet after the election, letting Macron pander to their third of the vote and their quarter of the Assembly. Although Macron’s Ensemble had ganged up with NFP to deny RN any access to legislative power, Macron has now granted legitimacy to RN as a party supporting government.
The fractious leaderless Left collaborated with rivals to keep the Right out, only to find themselves left out. As left-wing analyst Romaric Godin put it: “The public rejected Macronism in the first round and the RN in the second. Now they are getting both.”
According to the French Constitution, the political parties “shall respect the principles of democracy”. Any irony was unintentional at the time.
The next installment is due in April 2027 with the presidential election. Macron won’t be eligible for another term, and Le Pen is getting a solid 33% or more in opinion polls. In a second-round run-off, she could win, depending on who opposes her.
For once, it's not Italy being the biggest political punchline of Europe.