A second Trump presidency?

Is the sky falling in?

Based on past surveys since 2016, I’d estimate that roughly only one in ten Kiwis wants Donald Trump to be US president. That ten percent would be more than enough for Winston Peters. But Trump was fairly and squarely defeated in America’s 2020 general election – in case there was any doubt.

Trump is undeniably leading the field in the Republican Party primaries for another go as their candidate for president, however. Ron DeSantis, who was well behind, suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump. Nikki Haley is still in but lags behind. According to RealClearPolitics poll averages, Trump is 4.3 percentage points ahead in a general election match against Biden, last time I looked, and it’s been rising. So Trump’s on a path to a possible win in November. But you may ask, ‘Why would anyone vote for him? And shouldn’t he be behind bars?’

I don’t normally disclose my preferences, but let me be clear on this occasion: I don’t approve of Trump. He fails basic character tests, regardless of which party he represents. As your political consultant, however, it’s my job to look at reality and try to understand what’s going on.

You may not agree with them, but there are plain reasons why so many Americans (including quite moderate conservatives) are backing Trump:

• They don’t like what the Democrats are doing to their country (‘woke extremism’, illegal immigration, etc.)

• They believe that the economy was in better shape when Trump was president than it’s been under Biden.

• They believe Trump can keep America out of other countries’ wars.

• They like his unfiltered talk, which they perceive as honesty and self-confidence. He may misspeak from time to time, but he’s ‘an honest liar’.

• They know he’s far from perfect, but they back him to do things they want done, such as reducing the administrative state.

• He appeals to the individualistic freedom-loving instincts of many Americans.

• The criminal charges he’s facing only strengthen their resolve.

But can he stand for election if he’s convicted on any of those charges? First, it’s not all a ‘witch-hunt’, as Trump claims. For instance, the charges that he unlawfully conspired to change the outcome of the 2020 election in the State of Georgia, and that he asked Georgia’s Secretary of State to alter election returns have to be taken seriously. His phone call to officials in Georgia was recorded.

Now, in 1918, the socialist Eugene Debs was convicted of sedition for denouncing military draft, but, from a prison cell in 1920, he ran for president – in his fifth unsuccessful attempt. The US Constitution doesn’t bar a convicted prisoner from the presidential ballot, even though he/she may be barred from voting. (I guess the possibility of it just didn’t occur to the guys who wrote the constitution.) If Trump were to win an election while in prison, he could pardon himself of federal crimes as soon as he’s sworn in. This point is debated by the constitutional experts, of course, and Trump himself has said it’s unlikely he’d so. Furthermore, presidents can only grant pardons for federal offences, and Trump has been indicted also in the states of New York and Georgia which have their own processes for pardons.

Then there’s the Constitution’s 14th Amendment, which Trump’s opponents argue should disqualify him from a state’s ballot. This matter’s heading up to the Supreme Court – which is stacked with Trump-appointed judges. So it’s complicated right now, and it depends on how the judges interpret this wording: ‘No person shall hold any office who, having previously served as an officer of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection.’ It’s not firmly established that Trump actually ‘engaged in insurrection’. Personally I’d say he did incite it, especially on 6 January 2021, but he’s not been convicted of insurrection, let alone charged. (The actual charges related to Jan 6 are fraud, obstruction and depriving people of rights – not insurrection.)

Republican senators, House representatives and state governors are lining up to endorse Trump. At their national convention in mid-July, Trump could be formally selected as the Republican Party’s candidate for the election in November. If so, he stands a chance of winning, based on current polling. A criminal conviction would affect many voters’ views about his fitness for office, but transgressive behaviour doesn’t seem to damage him overall. For many Americans, a prison sentence would complete the martyrdom of St Donald and highlight the hypocrisies of the left.

If he won the election, then, he could be in a state penitentiary and unable to pardon himself. This may be unlikely, given the means available to stall legal processes and to file appeals. But, although previously unthinkable, it’s not implausible – and, let’s face it, it’s simply nuts.

But what would another four years of him mean? Here are some easy guesses:

• He’d capitulate to Russia on Ukraine in order to end America’s contribution to that conflict.

• He’d talk tough on trade with China, but would back off if China invades Taiwan.

• He’d take a stronger pro-Israeli stance than Biden.

• He’d renege on America’s climate-related commitments.

The Russians and Chinese quite like having Trump as president: he makes America less tough, not more; he’s a symptom of how Americans are at war with one another, rather than with them; he’s exhibit A in their case against western values.

Most New Zealanders, I guess, just don’t get this, and they may find the possibility of another term in ‘office’ for Trump rather alarming or depressing. He’s often incoherent, with scant regard for facts, and has a track-record of contempt for the rule of law.

Does this really mean the death of democracy though? That’s a theme I could return to another time. But, if you want a trenchant plague-on-both-their-houses take on the coming presidential election, then read Maureen Callahan of the Daily Mail.

In any case, the most significant election happening in 2024 is really India’s. So I’ll look into that too in due course. The consequences of the 1947 partition and independence of India are working themselves out still. India and China are eclipsing the US and EU.