Biden bows out. Will Harris take the lead?
And has Trump peaked too early?
President Joe Biden has gracefully pulled out of the US presidential race.
“I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.”
Coming on a Sunday afternoon (US time), and following the Trumpian carnival last week, his timing was good. News cycles are now likely to be dominated by Biden’s succession and by the Democrats, through to their Convention in mid-August.
The process for nominating the Democratic candidate has yet to be finalised, let alone the nomination itself. Nonetheless, Biden has endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris, and she has enthusiastically accepted the challenge. Biden’s campaign fund has been renamed “Harris for President”, so she hits the ground running. Pushing Harris aside would come across badly for liberal Americans, but her nomination isn’t a fait accompli.
There may be other contenders to come forward, with an open nomination process at the Democratic national convention. A genuine competition would seem more democratic. It could also make sense, however, for the Democrats to make a show of unity and nominate Harris, uncontested. But would that look like a coronation, and hence less legitimate? Either way, Harris offers American voters a historic opportunity to elect a black woman.
Michelle Obama was trending on X as a top pick, but she’s said before that she’s not interested. Nonetheless, the Obamas aren’t openly endorsing Harris, or anyone else, at this stage. The Clintons, however, are backing Harris.
Harris has been polling a bit behind Trump in match-ups, but, if she were to be nominated, that could soon change. It would have worked for Trump if Biden had stayed on the ballot, but he now has to face a competitor whose potential to draw attention away from him has yet to be tested.
Here’s a theory of how Harris, if nominated, wins in November:
Trump is now the one whose age and mental acuity count against him. But Harris has to prove herself as more than just “not Biden” or “not that old”. While she has the ability to mobilise women, people of colour and younger voters, she needs to do more than that.
She presents a clear contrast to Trump who was hoping to run as the “strong” candidate. She has to project her own presidential voice and a kind of strength that’s authentic for her. Like any candidate, she will need to “sound like” a president.
As Vice-President, part of her role was not to out-shine the President. If given the lead, however, she has the chance to remake her public profile.
She can draw on her experience as a prosecutor to cross-examine Trump on facts and on his record, showing how he’s merely “performatively” strong, and how weak and dishonest he really is. Harris has a track-record on women’s reproductive health and rights, in contrast to Trump who’s beholden to the conservative “pro-life” constituency.
She may be seen as having been too tough in the past on crime for liberals, and too weak on immigration for conservatives.
Harris needs to present herself as a leader who can make a difference at home and abroad. Can she pull it off?
At the end of his message endorsing Harris (see below), Biden signed off with “Let’s do this”. That was Jacinda Ardern’s slogan (remember?), chosen on the spur of the moment as she took up leadership of the NZ Labour Party in 2017. Comparison with Andrew Little standing down and handing over to Ardern isn’t all that strong, but it’s worth a thought. A Hail Mary pass like this can pay off.
Last week was owned by the Republicans and by Trump. It was looking like “Trump’s election”. They’re not so cocky now.
If the Democrats do nominate Harris, she has the ability to put Trump on trial politically.
She brings her White House experience and a track-record of shattering glass ceilings.
Media attention now swings in the Democrats’ favour. What matters is this: could Harris energise undecided voters in the crucial battleground states and tip the Electoral College in her favour? Is there another candidate who could do it better?
No one has any time to waste.
This election is all about American’s rights. The SCOTUS ruling that POTUS has official immunity puts the President above US law. Americans can no longer say no one is above the law. The President has the power to do whatever he sees fit and there’s nothing anyone can do to stop to him. The President can’t even be questioned. If Trump is elected he will have absolute power to rule as a dictator. Democracy is on the ballot in November. Those who support it must vote against Trump. They may never get another chance if he wins. Women have a further reason to vote against Trump. They know their reproductive health rights are being stripped from them. November's election could be their only chance to win them back. Biden was their only option. They would have voted for him despite his age. Now he’s dropped out their support goes to Kamala Harris. She is a neat fit for her party’s nomination. She is definitely on track to get it. Trump’s nightmare has just begun. Expect a strong voter turnout in November.
Thanks Grant. Yes - it is a serious game changer. I don't for one minute mean to play down the racism and prejudice she will face as a woman in this role (Condeleza Rice once said that while Americans might support an Afro-American as president they will not support a woman) nor do i underestimate Trump's ability to galvinise support from unlikely quarters, but with Harris in the race we now have a contest. It is no longer Trump's election.