Can Hipkins make Luxon a one-termer?

Hipkins has History against him. What, though, are the obstacles and opportunities up ahead?

Chris Hipkins’s speech as Labour Party leader on Sunday set out some major political goalposts – primarily to make Luxon & Co. a one-term government, and to return to office without the help of Winston “Piggy-in-the-Middle” Peters.

The weaknesses of Christopher “What-I’d-just-say-to-you” Luxon’s government were cruelly exposed by Jack Tame that morning on Q+A: poor economic and fiscal performance; worsening poverty and inequality; knowingly leading the country into the worst social division since 1981. There’s some open goals right there for the Opposition.

Labour will need more than that, however. They suffer from credibility deficits of their own. Let’s look at some.

Chippy talked positively about innovative Kiwi firms, and he named-checked some new enterprises. Governments don’t directly “produce” such innovation, but they must provide the right environment, especially in education and research. As former minister of education, Hipkins made a shambles of polytechs through wasteful amalgamation, and he left the universities to decline through under-funding and through non-educative political agendas – none of which was mentioned in his speech, of course.

In his speech, Hipkins used the word “investment” a lot. Labour would “invest” in some good things: more state houses, a rail-enabled inter-island ferry service, a full rebuild of Dunedin hospital. These were crowd-pleasers for the party faithful, but this investment means debt. And Labour gets hammered on a daily basis by National for the debt they accrued over their six years in office.

Chippy talked like a classic Labour leader, however, when he declared “a fair day’s pay for a fair day’s work”. That “fairness” boiled down to a couple more policy bones thrown to the party faithful: pay equity and fair-pay agreements.

What was missing was how “we” (that is, all of us in this together) are going to work and save to pay for the good things that Labour tells us we should want, without leaving us in crippling debt that ruins us later.

Chippy’s remedy is to “tax the rich”. Those rich pricks can help pay for our “investments”, right? Labour will seek a mandate in 2026 for either a stronger capital-gains tax or a new wealth tax. That policy of “tax fairness” appeals to many New Zealanders, but, on its own, won’t pay for the many good things that Labour supporters want, from efficient trains to world-class universities. At worst, it could be just deck-chair shuffling on the Titanic.

At Election 2026, National will brand Labour as a slothful tax-hungry red demon out to steal your lunch and eat it too.

Chippy’s fine talk at a party conference is easily dismissed by his political opponents. He’ll need to be more convincing and economically literate when it comes to the next election, then. He’ll need a plan based on producing higher incomes for the country as a whole – and for individuals who’d rather stay than leave in search of real jobs.

The other big credibility problem Hipkins will face is his potential coalition partnerships with the Greens and Te Pāti Māori – knowing that NZ First is off the table.

The Greens have been an ongoing embarrassment of ultra-wokeness, finger-pointing and scandal. They no longer even pretend to be a serious ecologist political party. Are they really up for the serious responsibilities of ministerial warrants?

TPM are taking full advantage of being super-offended by Mr Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill. There can, and perhaps should, be appropriate times for haka in the debating chamber. But TPM’s high-jinks and insulting language are bad, by association, for Labour’s election chances.

If a vote for Labour means, in effect, a vote for Green and TPM leaders in cabinet, then many centrist voters will reluctantly stick with National, thanks all the same. Chippy can’t control those other parties or explain them away over the next two years.

Can Hipkins propose a middle way that’s more statesman-like than Seymour’s Principles Bill, that honours te Tiriti, and that won’t be off-putting to the majority of Kiwis? To aspire to be prime minister again, he has to do more than criticise and call out his opponents for racism. He has to find a practical solution that unites the country and means more than just vague rhetoric. Should be easy!

For the time being, though, I wouldn’t put money on a change of government in 2026, because Hipkins doesn’t yet have the right formula. His Sunday sermon was only for the converted anyway.

Photo: RNZ / Lillian Hanly (hope they don’t mind).