Leading through polycrisis: can the centre hold?

Or will mere anarchy be loosed upon the world? (Apologies to WB Yeats.)

Numerous readers of Politics Happens have commented that none of the political parties represents them anymore or that the left/right distinction no longer means anything.

There’s a concern among people globally that democracy isn’t working, politicians can’t be trusted, and things are going pear-shaped.

I’ll summarise some international surveys that reveal this pessimism and then focus on New Zealand.

Dissatisfaction with democracy has grown since the mid-1990s[i]; most Europeans surveyed in 2018 believed that the average person in their country trusts politicians to tell the truth less than they did 30 years before;[ii] only about one quarter of people in OECD countries trusted political parties.[iii] An international survey asked people “how to improve democracy”, and the most frequent responses involved getting better politicians – and less often changing the system. People want leaders who are responsive, competent, honest, reliable and hence trustworthy.[iv]

Political-party systems have fragmented, so that smaller parties have grown and the combined support for traditional centre-left and centre-right parties has declined. The US looks like an exception to this, with its entrenched two parties. But the Republican and Democratic parties have both been transformed from within by insurgent minorities, respectively MAGA Right and Woke Left.

Elsewhere, many voters defect to more radical parties, but what unites them across the spectrum, according to a report by the Tony Blair Institute, is concern about the cost of living and “a growing belief that economic progress for them and their children is unlikely”. Hence they’re seeking “honesty, competence and effective reform”. [v] They feel there’s too much getting in the way of social and economic progress, be it over-regulation, discrimination or sheer ideology. Many feel pessimistic about the future and that their children will be worse off, not better off, than they are. They believe that political leaders and traditional models of leadership and governance are failing.

The Blair Institute report found that more than half of their international survey sample could be sorted into two groups with differing views about what they want from political leaders. Those preferences were for either

• strong decisive leaders who take a commonsense approach to straightforward problems with less input from unelected backroom people, or

• decision-making by elected leaders that results from discussion, negotiation and compromise on complex issues using the best independent evidence.

So, when people say they want better leaders, it only begs the question. What kinds of leaders and what styles of leadership are better?

What’s more, the vote shares for mainstream centre-left and centre-right parties in Europe, North America and Australia are declining as people lose faith in them. Those traditional parties’ average combined shares of votes declined from 73% in 2000 to 52% in 2024. This indicates a fragmentation of political parties, which has reached extremes in countries such as the Netherlands, Italy and France.

Is anything comparable happening to the New Zealand political-party system?

The blue line in the graph below shows the combined party-vote share for Labour and National under the MMP system.

After some teething problems with MMP, the two major parties of the traditional centre-left and centre-right between them scored over 70% in six elections, 2005–2020. There are six parties seated in the present parliament, and the maximum under MMP has been eight.

Parliaments became effectively less diverse in political terms, not more diverse.

Readers who dislike the influence of minor parties may approve of that trend.

As a historical side-note, the first Labour government came into office in 1935 and the National Party was formed in 1936. The two parties dominated NZ politics from then through to 1996. MMP elections still look to many voters as if they were a National versus Labour contest, often to the annoyance of minor parties.

In mid-2017, I was wondering if New Zealand would be hit by the kind of political disruption and fragmentation seen abroad. As one indicator, that blue line in the graph above had declined gradually from the 2005 election to 2014. Would it drop further?

Then some unexpected events confounded that thought. The change of Labour’s leader from Little to Ardern boosted their result from 25 to 37% in 2017, while National still did well on 44%.

Then Covid-19 struck and everything was “unprecedented” including the 2020 election results, with Labour getting 50%. National got 25.6% making a two-party total of 75.6%.

In 2023 that total dropped back to 65% (a level close to Sweden and Spain), although that’s not the lowest it’s ever gone.

On present polling, the combined National plus Labour party vote could decline again, perhaps to its lowest level ever, 62% or below. (But I’ve learned not to make predictions!)

As further evidence of a lack of public confidence, most NZ polls are showing more people think the country’s going in the wrong direction than the right direction. And prime minister Luxon and leader of the opposition Hipkins both rate poorly on preferred prime minister polls. Luxon leads, weakly, in the mid-20s.

A divisive debate about the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi has boosted support for minor parties – TPM on the left and ACT on the right – thus hollowing out the centre. The Treaty issue is unique to NZ, but, as in other comparable countries, “sidecar” can parties drive polarisation – and profit from it.

Once Seymour’s bill has been dispensed with, then, National and Labour might even show some statesmanship, reach across the aisle, use their majority to short-circuit further debate and reunite the country – and win back some voters – with a more balanced codification of Treaty principles. John Key did something similar to end a divisive debate about child discipline law.

Immigration, especially illegal immigration, isn’t a big issue in NZ politics, unlike the US, UK and EU. The concern here is more about emigration as talented people leave for better opportunities overseas.

Akin to other countries, however, Kiwis’ primary concerns include the cost of living and healthcare. While healthcare and pensions become increasingly expensive, household budgets are under pressure and people are unwilling to pay higher taxes. Many people support making the tax system fairer, but they also want it to be efficient, easily understood and not too time-consuming.

Conclusion

People want and deserve a fresh approach to how political leaders conduct themselves, how leadership is “done” and how societies are governed. They shouldn’t have to hire intemperate wrecking-balls like Donald Trump and Elon Musk just to get some satisfaction and some change, for better or worse. There must be a rational approach. I’m working on it!

Note to readers: I’m posting here less frequently as I’m planning another book. Today’s post emerged from that work. I’d love to write something about Trump 2.0, but there are too many things happening all at once, and only so much time to take it all in, let alone write it down.

Thank you to those who have pledged subscriptions already! It still doesn’t warrant switching on paid subscriptions. Your support is appreciated all the same.

“It is part of the job of the political philosopher to study pleasure and pain, since he is the architect of the end, with an eye on which we call one thing unqualifiedly bad, another good.” Aristotle, Nicomachean Ethics, VII, 11.

Footnotes

[i] Foa, R.S., Klassen, A., Slade, M., Rand, A. & R. Collins. 2020. “The Global Satisfaction with Democracy Report 2020.” Cambridge, United Kingdom: Centre for the Future of Democracy. URL: https://www.cam.ac.uk/system/files/report2020_003.pdf (accessed 14 January 2025). See also, Wike, R. & J. Fetterolf, 2024. “Satisfaction with democracy has declined in recent years in high-income nations”. Pew Research Center, URL: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/06/18/satisfaction-with-democracy-has-declined-in-recent-years-in-high-income-nations/ (accessed 14 January 2025).

[ii] Statista, 2024. “Do you think the average person in your country trusts politicians to tell the truth more than they did 30 years ago?” URL: https://www.statista.com/statistics/913835/trust-in-politicians-compared-to-30-years-ago-europe/ (accessed 14 January 2025).

[iii] OECD, 2022. “Building Trust to Reinforce Democracy”. URL: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/building-trust-to-reinforce-democracy_b407f99c-en.html (accessed 14 January 2025).

[iv] Silver, L., Fagan, M., Huang, C. & L. Clancy, 2024. “What Can Improve Democracy?” Pew Research Center, URL: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/03/13/what-can-improve-democracy/ (accessed 14 January 2025).

[v] Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, 2025. “Disruptive Delivery: Meeting the Unmet Demand in Politics”. URL: https://institute.global/insights/politics-and-governance/disruptive-delivery-meeting-the-unmet-demand-in-politics (accessed 31 January 2025).