Could Luxon be a one-term wonder?

And is anyone really shocked, or even surprised, by the 1News/Verian poll?

The two main points from Monday’s 1News/Verian poll were: Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori could hold a House majority, and NZ First could be out. The word “shock” appeared in numerous headlines, but how seriously should anyone take this?

First, it’s just one poll, and each poll is an estimate. To their credit, the polls were fairly accurate in 2023 compared with election results. I’d put that down to a lower election turnout than in 2020 when polls were inaccurate.

Polls are not forecasts anyway, and it’s a long time till the next election. So don’t lay bets, unless you like risk.

National’s poll result of 36 hasn’t strayed outside of the margin of error compared with their election result of 38 and with subsequent polls. They’re still clearly ahead of Labour. But they’ve had no honeymoon and people aren’t warming to them.

By comparison, Labour on 30 and Greens on 14 are looking uppish. Labour has hardly had to say “boo”, let alone come up with credible new policies, and yet they’re steady. The Greens are shrugging off some recent scandals and benefiting from Chloe Swarbrick’s co-leadership. TPM are holding steady.

The analysis of the poll on 1News assumed that TPM would retain six Māori seats and hence produce an overhang, or a 121-seat House. If TPM get fewer electorates and hence has its party-vote allocation of seats, then Labour/Green/TPM still get a majority of 63/120. If you add NZ First scraping back in with 5%, then it’s a 60/60 hung parliament. So all bets are off.

Looking at the trends in polling, and not just this week’s one, the people’s verdict on the Luxon government appears to be a collective thumbs down, with more people saying the country’s going in the wrong direction and support dropping especially for the two minor coalition partners.

ACT hasn’t been polling well lately, and the recent score of 7 is not a surprise.

But NZ First went below the 5 percent threshold for the first time this year. Given past experience, it’s likely that NZ First won’t survive the next election. Once they’re in a coalition, they lose support. And the kinds of voters Peters pitched to in 2023 are likely to feel disillusioned as he jet-sets around as foreign minister. His address to the UN general assembly would have angered more than a few conspiracy theorists.

So Luxon risks losing Peters as a coalition partner, and few readers will be crying if that comes to pass at the next election.

This puts the PM in an awkward position. He rates poorly on preferred PM polls (now below 25%). People can see what his government wants to do – but it’s having no effect on their quality of life. In fact, many people are losing jobs, while inflation stays relatively high (4% for the year to March) and hence interest rates will remain high too for some time. Tax cuts may “deliver” some relief to families, but that will be “priced in” and forgotten come election day.

If I were him, what would I do?

First, I’d stop replying to awkward questions with the phrase “I’d just say to you…” Do you find that annoying too? His responses to reporters are so repetitive that I don’t need to rattle off examples. Listeners have heard it all before, and they’re not convinced, so they may as well stop listening. Or, he needs to freshen up his communications.

One may well conclude, however, that Luxon has nothing new to say because he has no idea about where to go from here. He’s thrown in his chips and put his cards on the table. The people can see what he’s got and they’re not impressed. No amount of talk about “delivering” is going to help now, unless…

Second point: he and his team come up with a positive non-repetitive policy programme over the next six months post-Budget, but without nasty surprises that lie outside of their election mandate. In a stagnant economy, their options are limited though. They’ll have trouble fighting the opposition with their hands tied.

If economists give May’s Budget a collective eyeball-roll, then Luxon’s in real trouble. After all, he did promise to “grow the economy”. If he doesn’t “deliver” that growth, he’ll be a one-term wonder. It’ll take a national emergency, ideally in early 2026, to pull him through, and (God help us) no one wants another one.

Other than the somewhat dubious fast-track legislation, when Mr Luxon isn’t undoing what Jacinda Ardern did, he’s redoing what John Key did, as if it were 2016. Are there really no new ideas out there?

Labour’s job isn’t easy either. They lost a lot of credibility in the eyes of the public while in office. They get the blame for inflation and for being too PC. The election result spoke for itself. They may be pleased that they scored 30 in one recent poll, but that’s still weak if they want to form the next government. Time is on their side, however. To get more voters back from National and NZ First, they need to come up with a credible alternative policy programme. Sitting still and watching Luxon fail won’t be enough.

---

Note to readers

My sincere thanks go to people who’ve pledged subscriptions in advance and to all those who’ve made supportive and constructive comments.

As reader numbers are gradually building, I’m considering switching on paid subscriptions soon, but I’m not setting a date right now. Subs would be $5 per month, or $50 pa, which is the lowest this system goes. By comparison, the NZ Herald is currently offering a discount to new subscribers at $99 for the first year – for a lot more content, of course. I’m happy to hear feedback about this, but, unlike the Herald and others, I don’t want to paywall my articles. I prefer to offer an open and independent service to the public. Paid subscribers would effectively be donating and thus supporting what I do as a public service, rather than buying a product.

Just so you know, I’m not on a salary and I belong to no political party, union or lobby group. I don’t have to write “shock” headlines just to get your attention and hence to satisfy advertisers and private polling companies. If my situation changes materially, I’ll let you know. I have a “visiting scholar” position with City, University of London, but I’m neither visiting them physically at the moment nor being paid by them. It’s just a handle to use for any academic publications I might contribute to. Thanks go to Prof Charlie Lees for organising it. I’ve only used it so far to publish on The Conversation which is free to all readers. In these times of low trust in mainstream media, I hope that enough of you will see what I do as worth five bucks a month.

The Three Amigos. Here they come…