Iran 3, US 1
Trump accepts a bad deal to end a very costly war.
On Tuesday afternoon in the FIFA World Cup, Iran and New Zealand drew 2-2. It was a good match politically, as the Iranians kicked off their tournament against a non-hostile Western country. Officially, New Zealand had not explicitly supported the US–Israeli attack on Iran.
The photo shows protestors outside an Auckland bar that had screened the match live. They were calling for regime change in Iran. The current theocratic government there does not respect human rights and does not represent a majority of Iranians. This particular group want the Pahlavi monarchy to be restored.
Looking back, then, at his announcement of a US–Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, President Donald Trump spoke to the Iranian people as follows:
“To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard [IRGC], the armed forces and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity. Or in the alternative, face certain death. So, lay down your arms. You will be treated fairly with total immunity, or you will face certain death. Finally, to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”
On March 1, following the assassination of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Trump reinforced this. Iranian military and police personnel no longer wanted to fight, he claimed, and they were reportedly seeking immunity. Switch sides or die, he warned them. Trump imagined that the IRGC and police could “peacefully merge with Iranian patriots and work together as a unit” to restore their country to greatness.
At that time, it wasn’t clear (to an outside observer) whether the political and military command structures within Iran could survive “dozens” of assassinations of top officials plus the heavy bombardment of military assets. But it now appears that regime change is not occurring in Iran. The theocratic government of the Islamic Republic and its military and security apparatus are intact and operational. Indeed, they still negotiate as the state party, actively recognised by the Trump administration. Trump has been forced to pay them respect. For him, that’s a humiliating failure.