January Surprises

How is NZ's Labour government doing after the shock resignation of Jacinda Ardern?

Welcome to the first Politics Happens newsletter!

My plan is to post one newsletter per week, normally on Monday mornings, reflecting on what’s happened recently in Aotearoa New Zealand and looking ahead to what’s coming, especially the general election on 14 October.

I’ll try to keep newsletters brief and readable, and not overload your inbox.

2023 began so quietly, I was wondering if there’d be a January Surprise.

And then I got more than I was asking for…

Jacinda Ardern’s sudden resignation was followed swiftly (as if it had all been planned!) by a replacement prime minister, Chris Hipkins, … and then there was a devastating storm over Auckland that ruined many people’s homes and possessions. Four people lost their lives.

Natural disasters test the true qualities of a leader, and Jacinda Ardern had excelled in that department. Chris Hipkins did a solid job in response to the flood (with usual footage of PM surveying the scene from a helicopter), especially when compared with the dismal performance of the Mayor of Auckland, Wayne Brown. Well, Auckland voters knew from the start that Wayne wasn’t the most empathetic kind of guy.

The first opinion polls since the change of prime minister were issued on Monday 30 January. They both showed Labour getting a significant boost, up from low 30s to 38%, about 1 point ahead of National. (One point is statistically not significant, by the way, so don’t read too much into it.)

Was this boost for Labour just temporary? Or, having already stolen the political initiative with their surprise change of leadership, will Labour maintain the momentum?

Hipkins followed up promptly with another headline-grabber: a reshuffle of the cabinet.

The change of PM on its own necessitated a reshuffle, but Hipkins made promotions for some rising talent, such as Jan Tinetti (picking up Education), Kiri Allan (Justice) and Ayesha Verrall (Health). The demotion of Nanaia Mahuta and the transfer of the local government portfolio to Kieran McAnulty hints at policy shifts in the controversial 3 Waters reforms, particularly its co-governance aspect.

There’s more that the government can do to keep this momentum up:

• Assist Aucklanders who’ve been badly affected by the floods.

• Drip-feed announcements about changes of policy direction.

• Drop some hints about relief for financially stressed families ahead of May’s Budget.

After Waitangi Day (6 February) and ANZAC Day (25 April) events are over, the Budget, led by finance minister Grant Robertson, is their opportunity to set the policy agenda.

Next week (barring an early February Surprise) I’ll ask how the opposition National Party is faring through this.

The obvious critique from the Opposition (for now) is that the change of prime minister signifies nothing much at all. The sitting government’s supposed mis-direction and failures to deliver are still there waiting to be attacked.

And there’s a lot that can go wrong for the Labour government in the eight months remaining until early polling commences.

Note for readers: Feedback is especially welcome at the moment, so that I can tweak style and content. Let me know if anything needs further explanation.

I’ve been contacted by a representative of NZ’s ‘professional political polling industry’ who wanted to discuss my recent article on polls (in The Conversation) and to clear up some misconceptions. I’ll let you in on how that goes!

In case you were worried, I’m high and dry, but feeling for those who’ve been flooded and displaced.