Lesson from America: how the left lost to diversity

And what NZ Labour may learn from this.

Ten or twenty years ago, it was often said that, as America became an increasingly diverse post-industrial society, a demographically declining white Republican base would lose electoral majorities, ushering in a new progressive era dominated by the Democratic Party. But this triumphalist view that diversification would inexorably turn the country leftwards was short-sighted.

Surveys are now showing that the relative advantage that the Democrats had long enjoyed among Black, Latino and Asian voters is declining. Despite a track-record of racist comments from Donald Trump (the presumptive Republican presidential candidate), these minority groups are trending rightwards. This may have more to do with economic inequality and class, not race per se, and with disappointment in a Democratic Party that hasn’t addressed people’s basic needs.

“The Democratic Party has ceased to be seen and to function as the party of the people in competition with the party of business” (Judis & Teixeira, 2023, p. 10).

Liberal political, business and media leaders had lost touch with working people. For an amusing example, Jimmy Kimmel’s “Isn’t it past your jail time?” joke on Trump at the Oscars was genuinely funny, but his live audience was far from “blue-collar”. And once again, American politics is “all about Donald”. D’oh!

Populism exploits the built-in elitism of elections. “The elect” start to look out of touch, and then someone bypasses them and speaks directly to and for “the people”. Immigrants and immigration policies are often the populist’s first talking-points. Trump’s rambling stump speeches address “the enemy within” as well as those who “invade” from without.

A boost in the numbers of migrant workers may drive down wages, and, while employers and wealthy professionals benefit, native-born workers of any colour will eventually resist – at the ballot-box. Hence controlling immigration at the border with Mexico is a major election issue. The US has a history of such immigration politics.

Naturally, there are other cultural and moral issues at play there too, such as gender identities and abortion. But again, one shouldn’t assume that Hispanic and Asian American voters will take the liberal side on those matters.

A lesson for NZ Labour from America: don’t assume that ethnic minorities are “in your back pocket” electorally, nor that diversity is your strong suit.

Taking low- and middle-income workers for granted has proved to be a political weakness for the Democratic Party, as many pissed-off workers vote for Trump. Leaders of the big Teamsters union, for instance, recently had a private meeting with him. (Wish I’d been a fly on the wall!) Inflation, jobs and economic insecurity may weigh more on election results in key states than Black Lives Matter, Me Too or Gaza.

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In its Blairite third-way guise in the 2000s, NZ Labour made some inroads into income inequality (Working for Families), saving and investment (KiwiSaver) and skills development (“knowledge economy”). The best they could offer before the last election, in contrast, was GST off fresh fruit and vegetables – and that had a short shelf-life!

When the country was emerging from the pandemic-related border restrictions, the Ardern/Hipkins government came under pressure from businesses to open up immigration. They capitulated by starting an accredited employer work-visa that relied heavily on trust and hence was easily scammed by unscrupulous agents off-shore. (There’s a report of cabinet-level policy ineptitude and its tragic human consequences on RNZ’s The Detail.)

Recent estimates from Stats NZ show another record high in positive net migration: a 133,800 net migration gain. That’s more than the population of Dunedin coming in, once departures, including 74,200 NZ citizens who left, are accounted for. Many of those new arrivals will settle permanently and gain the right to vote. Out of the 229,800 immigrants who weren’t NZ citizens and arrived in the year to January (let alone earlier years), I don’t know what percentage will stay, enrol to vote and then actually vote in 2026. But the electorate is changing. The total number of party votes in 2023 was 2,851,211, so new arrivals could make an electoral difference. If there’s any assumption that they’ll vote left (if the left is seen as “kinder” to minorities, and the right as nativist and racist), then Labour should re-examine that assumption.

Native-born working-class voters, on the other hand, may switch to anti-immigration standpoints, if wages are declining and rents increasing due to competition from new arrivals. They may then vote to the right if that’s where they get a hearing. The Trump effect is just one example of how this can happen. To prevent it from happening, left politics needs to refocus on material concerns and on real prosperity for wage and salary earners. Think about decent wages, not just taxing the rich.

As Labour recovers from last year’s crushing defeat and reconsiders its future policy direction, they have an opportunity to return to the pursuit of prosperity for workers and their families. Or maybe not. It’s up to them.

This week on News Island, however, the prize for being “out of touch” goes to prime minister Luxon for asserting that tenants should be “very grateful” for the huge tax-break that their landlords are getting.

Someone needs to start a collection of Luxonisms!