Luxon's leadership: not over yet?

Was it just another media frenzy?

That agonising slo-mo scene when a political leader is about to be turned into roadkill unfolds in various ways.

For former National Party leader Don Brash it came one week before the 2005 election when he desperately tried to shore up his credibility by telling the world: “I am not a liar”.

For former National leader Judith Collins it was that photo of her praying for a miracle before casting her vote in 2020.

For National leader and prime minister Christopher Luxon, his statement late on Friday afternoon that he was “absolutely not” considering standing down looked like it could have been one of those moments.

To say you’re not considering something means you have considered it. Saying “absolutely” only tightens the noose.

Pleas and denials backfire, revealing that one’s leadership capital is declining if not totally depleted.

By Monday morning, however, Luxon was doing the media rounds, assuring the country that his caucus backs him, and saying, quite reasonably, that Kiwis want him to focus on them, not on opinion polls. Was Friday’s alarm another false alarm?

Luxon’s bumpy ride as National Party leader and PM

He was meant to be the second John Key – another rich businessman who’d know how to “grow the economy”. OK, he may be a little conservative, but people would warm to him. And for a while it worked – long enough at least to see off a worn-out, scandal-ridden Labour government in 2023. National won only 38% of the vote, and NZ First annoyingly crept back in with 6%, but Luxon managed to form a three-party coalition government. This has never been a truly popular government, and Luxon has never been a popular leader. Luxon didn’t even get a honeymoon.

Labour has risen gradually in opinion polls, often ahead of National, but that’s largely by default. People are forgetting how incompetent the Labour team have proven themselves to be, but National is disappointing them too and are now bleeding supporters, some to Labour, and some to NZ First.

Most people I know who vote National tell me they’ll do so in spite of, rather than because of, Christopher Luxon.

A year ago, I did a comparative assessment of Luxon’s and Hipkins’s leadership capital, using an established set of indicators. Neither leader rated well, but Luxon was “politically weakened”. He’s lost a few points since then, with recent poor performances and lower polls, but he’s not yet in that “lame duck” range.

Luxon and Hipkins: assessing their leadership capital

A year ago, Duncan Garner was asking “Will Luxon walk before he’s pushed?” And yet Luxon has neither walked nor been pushed.

Last November, there was another media-pack feeding-frenzy over Luxon’s leadership.

Christopher Luxon, PM – but for how long?

At that time, it didn’t look politically prudent to roll him, and Chris Bishop doused the scrub-fires that (he alleged) had been lit by some pyromaniac press-gallery journalist.

This latest round of speculation was triggered when Luxon “misspoke” on the government’s stance on the American–Israeli attack on Iran, and then National got a poll result of 28.4%, six points behind Labour.

In Luxon’s defence, the war on Iran is a tricky topic that shouldn’t reward simple answers, and a single poll shouldn’t be taken seriously as news. But it’s easy click-bait.

“PM shaken by horror poll result” was Stuff’s absurd headline on Friday afternoon.

But still, a poll result below 30 for National is indicative of a continuing downward trend from 38 at the last election. Too many National seats are at risk in the next election, then, and caucus would naturally ask if a change might help reverse the ongoing decline.

A leadership spill probably isn’t a solution at this stage, however. Voters don’t reward party in-fighting. And, regardless of who leads the NZ government, the war in the Middle East is going to damage the NZ economy – although it’s impossible to predict how badly or for how long. A spike in oil prices will punch a hole into National’s big promises to the grow the economy and to keep inflation down.

In any case, there may be no half-way sensible candidate who wants to take over the job of National Party leader (and PM) at the moment. It’s not as crazy as volunteering to be next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, but it does paint a target on one’s back.

Any National leadership aspirants would ask themselves if it’s mission impossible right now. It may be better to bide their time while Luxon loses and then resigns, and wait while a tired old Labour cast comes back on stage for another rotten-tomato performance. And then National’s next-in-line makes her or his move.

The basic problem for National is that New Zealanders haven’t grown to like Luxon after all. But it’s too late now. They’ll have to do their best with the leader they chose.