MMP: Is it a problem?
And can NZ Labour win in November?
Small parties have too much influence. Campaign pledges aren’t kept. Short-term thinking. Is it all because of MMP?
An alternative view is that New Zealanders have hung on to an FPP mind-set for too long, so they’re not using MMP to its full potential, compared with the Germans.
Two distinct conclusions routinely arise from these debates: that Kiwis should never have switched to MMP in the first place, or, on the other hand, that the MMP system is good but still maturing. (MMP and FPP are explained below for those who aren’t familiar.)
These arguments don’t always logically link cause and effect, or problem and solution. So let’s break it down. But first note that no electoral system is 100% fair and problem-free. Anomalies in themselves don’t necessarily invalidate a system.
FPP comes from an era in which a district’s representative was elected by the local aristocratic tax-paying property-owners, excluding women. It was not designed around political parties – which didn’t exist back in the day. The idea of “party” was resisted by politicians who believed that representation required acting on one’s own God-given conscience. All the same, in the UK, and later in NZ, political parties formed. Independents haven’t been elected to NZ parliaments since the early 1940s – though some have broken away from, or been kicked out of, their party mid-term.
As parties assumed the mantle of representation, FPP produced what began to look like disproportionate outcomes. Many readers will recall that, in 1978 and 1981, National got fewer votes than Labour but won majorities of seats.
The UK still has FPP, and, in 2024, Labour won 63.2% of the seats in the House of Commons with just 33.7% of the popular vote, on only a 59.7% turnout. In short, a small minority voted in a one-party parliamentary majority. That partly explains why the Starmer government is so unpopular now. Looking to defeat the Labour government, the Reform UK party surged ahead in opinion polls.
Anyone wanting to go back to FPP should look not only at the UK today, but also look back to NZ’s hung parliament of 1928 in which none of the three main parties wanted to work with any other, and none had a majority, forcing Labour to swallow a dead rat just to keep the system rolling.
MMP produces problems too. New Zealand’s current, rather fractious three-party coalition illustrates that. The apparent alternative government would be yet another fractious three-party coalition. Critics of MMP point to the over-sized influence and veto-power that minor parties can wield. That problem can arise under FPP, too, but it’s less likely to arise.
There are limits to arguing, on the other hand, that New Zealand’s politicians should learn from their German counterparts. Grand coalitions formed in Germany, often intended to keep the anti-immigration AfD party out of office, have caused voter frustration that’s helped to boost the AfD, putting it now ahead of the centre-right CDU/CSU coalition in opinion polls. Disaffected voters may accuse the “legacy” parties of rigging the system – and punish them accordingly.
It’s true, nonetheless, that parties in New Zealand – notably the Greens – have foregone opportunities to use their post-election bargaining power to full effect, and hence they haven’t shifted public policy as far their way as they might have done. Maybe there is some “growing up” to do.
Under both FPP and MMP, maverick parties may flourish and ungainly agreements may have to be made. Regardless of the electoral system, however, a majority can always be found, the Governor General must not be without responsible advisers, and the country needs stable government. How the voters perceive the outcomes will depend a lot on the qualities of the political leaders. And unfortunately good leaders are in short supply.
Explainer: FPP (first-past-the-post) is based on districts in which the candidate who gets the most votes (a plurality, not necessarily a majority) wins the seat as its representative. MMP (mixed-member proportional) combines local FPP-based representation along with a proportional allocation of seats from a nationwide party vote with representatives drawn from party lists.
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