One poll, two different takes on Fast-Track Bill

Does 44% in favour mean "strong" support?

A Newshub headline reads: “Taxpayers' Union poll shows strong support for Fast-track Approvals Bill”.

But a Radio NZ headline says: “Fast Track bill has more supporters than opponents - Taxpayers Union-Curia poll”.

Which is more accurate?

44 percent of respondents were in support of the Bill, 32 percent opposed it and 24 percent were unsure. The poll question is copied below.

The 44 percent in favour is a plurality, but not a majority. Another way of looking at it is that 56 percent didn’t support the Bill, but that’s (rather cheekily) mixing the large number who were unsure in with the opponents.

The RNZ headline gets my prize for the most objective take. The poll does in fact report “more supporters than opponents”.

Whether that means “strong” support is an interpretation that could have been left up to the reader. Or it could have been expressed in a quote from a supporter of the Bill, assuming an opponent also gets quoted. Both articles dig into some differing views on the Bill, but the RNZ article does a better job of looking more closely at the poll results.

As always, we should read polls critically with caution. We should take care to look at the results themselves rather than just accept the headline interpretations in the media. Do journalists and editors need some training on surveys and statistics?

Given that many people only read headlines, they should be as factual as possible.

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The poll question, as copied from the RNZ article: "The government has introduced a Fast-track Approvals Bill that it says will speed up the process for consenting infrastructure projects and reduce costs. Opponents of the bill say that it gives too much power to Government ministers and that it does not have sufficient environmental protections. Do you support or oppose the FastTrack Approvals Bill?"