Pakistan's Election
Imran Khan claims victory from inside a prison cell
‘Democracy’ in Pakistan is a messy business, and elections fall well short of the ‘free and fair’ standards. Affecting the present election, there were two bombings shortly before, killing 30 or more people, and internet and mobile networks were shut down once voting had started. There’ve been numerous allegations of electoral manipulation and irregularities. But the results (still emerging as I write) are incredible.
In short, it’s a hung parliament that pits two dynasties (the Sharifs and the Bhuttos) against the former cricket star cum former prime minister Imran Khan who’s behind bars and whose party logo was banned from the ballot papers. (Sound familiar?)
For all the efforts of the politico-military establishment to get rid of Khan and the PTI party he led, independent candidates affiliated with the PTI have collectively won the most seats. An AI-generated video of Imran Khan declaring victory was posted on social media.
The other two main parties, the Pakistan People’s Party and the Pakistan Muslim League (N), may not get enough seats between them to form a parliamentary majority. Nonetheless, the leader of the PML-N, Nawaz Sharif, is also claiming a victory, as his officially recognised party has won the most seats.
The former cricket legend Imran Khan, as leader of the PTI party, had been prime minister from 2018 until April 2022 when his government fell following a no-confidence vote. Opinion polls put the PTI well ahead of other parties through to 2023. But Khan and his wife are currently in prison on various counts including corruption, and many other PTI candidates have been locked up. PTI was barred from using its logo (a cricket bat) on ballots, which is important in a country with a low level of literacy, and most PTI candidates still at large had to run as independents.
Meanwhile, three-times former prime minister Nawaz Sharif made a come-back from self-imposed exile in England, as outstanding charges of corruption against him were conveniently nullified. But bringing him back hasn’t had the desired result.
Pakistan has the world’s fifth largest population (over 241 million, about 96% Muslim) so any election there is one to watch. Given the nature of Pakistan’s police and judicial system, it’s hard to tell whether the charges against Imran Khan – or, for that matter, the former charges against Nawaz Sharif – were justified or were trumped up (pun intended). Pakistan is ranked 133 out of 180 countries on the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index, so corruption is common there, but, by the same token, corruption charges are used for political purposes. Underlying it all is the institutional power of the military. To stay in power in Pakistan, a party needs to be on-side with the generals and the intelligence service.
Scroll down for more background info.
Background
The BBC did a pre-election backgrounder on Nawaz Sharif.
The Islamic Republic of Pakistan is a federal parliamentary system with multi-party elections. It has a National Assembly and a 100-member Senate. The National Assembly has a five-year term: 272 of its members are elected in single-member districts; 60 seats are reserved for women and 10 for non-Muslim minorities. These reserved seats use a party-list proportional-representation system, but the selection of candidates is tightly controlled by the parties. Aside from prominent figures such as the late Benazir Bhutto, who was assassinated in 2008, women rarely make it into higher offices.
Pakistan isn’t fully theocratic, as real power lies with the armed forces, but it was originally created as ‘a separate homeland for Muslims’.[i] Its constitution declares that Islam is the state religion, but guarantees religious freedom for all citizens and all religious institutions. It also guarantees freedom of speech, ‘subject to any reasonable restrictions imposed by law in the interest of the glory of Islam [and of] public order, decency or morality’. The partition of British India in 1947 into East and West Pakistan and India was a sectarian division that precipitated ‘the greatest exodus in recorded history’.[ii] Muslims didn’t universally support the creation of a Muslim-majority Pakistan, as many see themselves as a community of believers that transcends territory and state. But during the partition millions of Muslims fled there from the new Hindu-dominated India for fear of discrimination and sectarian violence – and millions of Hindus fled in the opposite direction. Many were killed along the way. In 1971 East Pakistan seceded to become Bangladesh. Mohammad Ali Jinnah (1876–1948), the founder of Pakistan, envisaged a modern representative government that would combine principles of democracy and Islam, but it wasn’t until 1970 that the first direct election for the national assembly was held, and since then Pakistan has seen periods of martial law and military dictatorship (1977–85, 1999–2002). The 2008 election was delayed by the assassination of the former prime minister Benazir Bhutto (PM 1988–90, 1993–96). The 2013 election was marred by terrorist attacks on election rallies and assassinations of candidates and workers of secular political parties, and hence there were doubts about some results, but there was at least a transfer of power with no military intervention.
Moderate elected leaders such as the centre-right Imran Khan have prevailed over hard-line Islamists, although his administration failed to tackle systemic corruption, and was ended by a parliamentary no-confidence vote in April 2022. Islamist political parties have receded to the margins electorally, but they have indirect influence through ‘quietist’ missionary activities or militant groups connected to terrorist networks and to the Taliban.[iii] The political power of the military, especially over security and foreign policy, is a greater concern, as ‘the Pakistan Army stands at the center of a complex pattern in which South Asia’s Islamist parties and their proxies work both with and against the state simultaneously’,[iv] and there’s a deep ‘institutional distrust’ between civilian government and the generals.[v] Concerning Islamic law, the constitution has established a ‘parallel judicial structure’ in the Federal Shariat Court.[vi] This consists of eight Muslim judges, up to three of whom are ulema, ‘having at least fifteen years experience in Islamic law, research or instruction’. The court may ‘examine and decide the question whether or not any law or provision of law is repugnant to the injunctions of Islam’.[vii] The effective government of Pakistan has been hampered by an inefficient and unpredictable judicial system, exploitation of institutions and resources for ‘the reproduction of a filthy rich elite’,[viii] local electorates being treated as the fiefdoms of privileged families, and ‘appeasement of banned extremist and terrorist outfits’.[ix] Viable strategies for political parties to attain power can include politically motivated corruption charges against opponents and currying favour with the military. Women and non-Muslim minorities generally face barriers to participation and representation, despite the reserved seats.
[i] Nadeem, Azhar Hassan. 2020. Pakistan: The Politics of the Misgoverned. London: Routledge. See p. 1.
[ii] Keay, John. 2010. India: A History. New York: Grove Press. See p. 509.
[iii] Nelson, Matthew J. 2015. ‘Islamist Politics in South Asia after the Arab Spring: Parties and their proxies working with – and against – the state’. Washington DC: Brookings Institute, URL: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Pakistan_Nelson-FINALE.pdf (accessed 22 July 2023).
[iv] Ibid. See p. 3, original italics.
[v] Nadeem [note i]. See p. 72.
[vi] Aziz, Sadaf. 2017. The Constitution of Pakistan: A Contextual Analysis. Oxford: Hart Publishing. See p. 221.
[vii] Constitution of Pakistan, Part VII, Chapter 3A. URL: http://www.pakistani.org/pakistan/constitution/ (accessed 17 March 2022).
[viii] Ali, Tariq. 12 April 2022. ‘Pakistan’s Godfathers’. Sidecar, URL: https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/pakistans-godfathers (accessed 17 April 2022).
[ix] Nadeem [note i]. See p. 68.