The Reverse Trump Effect

President Trump has unleashed a political tidal wave that's drowning the Right – in some countries.

Norway’s Labour prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre and allied left-wing parties have won an election on 8 September, despite strong support for the populist right.

It was a close-run contest, but even such a narrow victory had seemed unachievable for the Norwegian Labour Party at the beginning of this year as its polling had fallen below 20 percent before Christmas 2024. It looked as if they were destined to lose, but they received an unexpected boost in support in February, which was strong and sustained enough to deliver them another term in office.

Was this Phoenix-like rise of Norway’s left (or collapse of the right) connected with American politics? Since January 20, President Trump’s policies and statements have sent tidal waves around the democratic world, overturning trends in opinion polls, often towards the Left. In Canada, Australia and now Norway, centre-left governments that, at the end of 2024, had appeared destined for defeat have instead been returned to office (proving my own New-Year predictions wrong!)

There was a dramatic swing in favour of Canada’s Liberal Party after Trump suggested making the country the fifty-first state and imposing trade tariffs. His insult to Canadians’ national pride helped the Liberals, led by Mark Carney, to retain office. A similar reaction against Trump-like politics occurred in Australia, helping Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party decisively defeat the right-wing Coalition in May. Opinion polls in January had been indicating that both centre-left governments would lose, but an apparent “reverse Trump effect” worked in their favour.

This is not a universal trend, however. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party has been leading in opinion polls since May, with Labour in second place and the Conservatives a dismal third. In Germany the centre-left Social Democrats were defeated in February’s election, and the far-right Alternative for Germany is now polling on a par with the centre-right CDU/CSU Union. And the New Zealand Labour Party, currently in opposition, wouldn’t easily unseat the governing centre-right National Party, going by recent polls.

As comparable democracies, how do Australians and New Zealanders view Trump and his role in world affairs?

In June 2024, a Lowy Institute survey reported that 68 percent of Australians wanted to see Joe Biden re-elected, well ahead of Trump. Nonetheless, support for Trump had been growing among Australians, from 11 percent in 2016 to 23 percent in 2020 and then 29 percent in 2024.

There was a similar growth in support for Trump in New Zealand, from 9 percent in 2016 to 21 and 25 percent in two separate polls done in 2024 before the US election – but still a minority.

Has support for Donald Trump grown in New Zealand?

In this year’s Lowy Institute report, 25 percent of Australians said they had “a lot” of or “some” confidence in Donald Trump to do the right thing in world affairs. But Australians’ trust in the United States to act responsibly has fallen. Only 36 percent expressed any level of trust in the US, down by 20 percentage points from 2024 – and down 47 points since a high in 2011.

Furthermore, the Lowy Institute reports high levels of disapproval of Trump’s policies, especially his pressure on Denmark to sell or hand over Greenland to the United States (89 percent of Australians disapproved) and his use of tariffs to pressure other countries to comply with his administration’s objectives (81 percent disapproved).

Trump has imposed an unwelcome base tariff of 10 percent on Australia and 15 percent on New Zealand. But the US is Australia’s fourth largest trading partner, and it’s New Zealand’s third largest. Both countries’ largest trading partner is China. Their exporters may well need to focus more on East Asia and India in response to Trump’s tariffs.

Ironically, it’s now China’s President Xi Jinping who talks about multilateralism, sovereign equality and international rule of law – principles vitally important to the smaller export-dependent economies. (But how seriously can we take his words?)

“America First” policies may push Australia and New Zealand closer to China in trade, but these relationships are complicated. An unexpected visit by Chinese naval vessels in international waters off Australia's east coast – with live-fire exercises – caused an upset. China’s projection of global power encourages Australia to boost its historical defence cooperation with the US.

The Trump brand is unpopular in these English-speaking democracies, however. They have well-established right-wing populists – notably Winston Peters, leader of the New Zealand First Party (formed in 1993), and Australia’s Pauline Hanson of One Nation (formed 1997) – who only get small minorities in elections. Serious leadership contenders in Australia, New Zealand and similar liberal democracies have learned to avoid being compared with Trump. Canada’s Pierre Poilievre and Australia’s Peter Dutton learned that the hard way by losing elections.

But one never knows what Trump himself might say next. He said he wanted Greenland and Canada. What’s more, the US purchased Alaska in 1867 and annexed Hawaii in 1898, so why stop there? Why not complete the set?

As it has about 400 golf courses, and the US Air Force’s advance base to Antarctica, he might declare, “I’ll take New Zealand too”.