The bi-election is an opportunity for Labour to clearly set out what is stands for and what it will do if elected. The performative, activist vibe of TPM gets a lot of media oxygen, but while clear about who they stand for and what their aims are, we are as yet to see much clarity from Labour (aside from generic commitments to houses, jobs etc). Still not clear about what are Labour's bottom lines? Labour has always has to address pressure from the far left - part of how they have operated since 1935 - but successful Labour governments has shown themselves to be clear in their policies (including how they will be implemented) and disciplined in how they operate.
The Alliance, and now the Greens, have basically filled the void left by Labour's centre-ground shift. In any case, the trick is to pull the centre ground leftwards rather than merely swinging to it.
I believe the next candidate on the Labour list - should she wish to take up the opportunity - has Māori whakapapa. This means Henare winning the TM seat would not result in one fewer Māori MP (nor one fewer female MP).
Nope. If Henare vacates his list seat at the right moment his list seat gets passed onto the next person on the list. Labour gets one new MP and Te Pati Māori has one less seat; the make-up of Parliament changes but the number of total MPs does not. (Should Labour win an electorate in a by-election, a seat they do not currently hold, they end up with one more MP.)
They’re entitled to an extra seat if they win a by election. This is a similar scenario to Andrew Bayley in Port Waikato 2023. He was elected as a list MP in the general election and then became the electorate MP in a by election held only 5 or 6 weeks later*. Nancy Lu became a list MP for National as a consequence.
* there was a death of a candidate during the general election campaign so no electorate vote was held in the electorate on election day.
Very good question, Nick. I'm not sure if that marae will be used this time. (We'll see.) Given the allegations, I believe it shouldn't be. I'm unable to say what effect that could have on the result.
Thanks for the explainer Grant. I support another on the Māori electoral roll. Māori wards etc.
The bi-election is an opportunity for Labour to clearly set out what is stands for and what it will do if elected. The performative, activist vibe of TPM gets a lot of media oxygen, but while clear about who they stand for and what their aims are, we are as yet to see much clarity from Labour (aside from generic commitments to houses, jobs etc). Still not clear about what are Labour's bottom lines? Labour has always has to address pressure from the far left - part of how they have operated since 1935 - but successful Labour governments has shown themselves to be clear in their policies (including how they will be implemented) and disciplined in how they operate.
The Alliance, and now the Greens, have basically filled the void left by Labour's centre-ground shift. In any case, the trick is to pull the centre ground leftwards rather than merely swinging to it.
I believe the next candidate on the Labour list - should she wish to take up the opportunity - has Māori whakapapa. This means Henare winning the TM seat would not result in one fewer Māori MP (nor one fewer female MP).
But Labour's overall numbers wouldn't change, so the next list MP would not take a seat?
Nope. If Henare vacates his list seat at the right moment his list seat gets passed onto the next person on the list. Labour gets one new MP and Te Pati Māori has one less seat; the make-up of Parliament changes but the number of total MPs does not. (Should Labour win an electorate in a by-election, a seat they do not currently hold, they end up with one more MP.)
That's true, thanks Julienne. Would they be brazen enough?
They’re entitled to an extra seat if they win a by election. This is a similar scenario to Andrew Bayley in Port Waikato 2023. He was elected as a list MP in the general election and then became the electorate MP in a by election held only 5 or 6 weeks later*. Nancy Lu became a list MP for National as a consequence.
* there was a death of a candidate during the general election campaign so no electorate vote was held in the electorate on election day.
There were allegations after the general election of irregularities at one polling booth in the seat.
If that polling booth is not used this time will that have any effect on the result?
Very good question, Nick. I'm not sure if that marae will be used this time. (We'll see.) Given the allegations, I believe it shouldn't be. I'm unable to say what effect that could have on the result.