The UK jumps to the left. France steps to the right – and pulls back.

No, we're not doing the Time Warp again.

Two big elections in the last week should make us reassess everything.

UK Labour has had a stunning success, winning 412 seats in the Commons, as against 121 for the Conservatives. But just lift the bonnet: Labour didn’t exactly win; the Conservatives lost – kicked out for their years of egregious recklessness and incompetence. The right-wing vote was split with the populist anti-immigration party Reform UK, which came second in 98 seats. Some Labour candidates who defeated Conservatives won with a smaller share of the vote than in 2019, so there wasn’t a consistent swing to the left. Indeed, the new prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, retained his seat with reduced support – which should warn him not to be complacent.

Because of a low national turnout, fewer people voted for UK Labour last week than in 2019. And Labour’s small increase in their overall percentage share of the vote was largely due to the meltdown of the Scottish National Party.

In 2019, led by the much-maligned Jeremy Corbyn, Labour lost the election on 32 percent of the vote, and got 202 seats. Last week, Labour won on 34 percent (up by a mere 2 percentage points), but more than doubled their seats. They now hold nearly two thirds (64 percent) of seats on just over one third of the votes. If you needed an argument against the UK’s antiquated first-past-the-post system, there’s your evidence. Corbyn, by the way, has retained his seat as an independent.

Arguably Reform UK is a winner here, in a backhanded way. Although they secured only five seats (with 14 percent of the vote), they were instrumental in defeating the incumbents. Coming from nowhere, Reform preyed on Tory failure, and now that’s helped Labour into office. They’ve helped bring about the change.

So did Labour really earn their victory? They can’t claim a resounding mandate from the people, despite their parliamentary majority, and their leader isn’t popular. They’ll have to work hard every day for the next five years to prove they deserve to be in office. But will they?

Starmer can now administer and lead a new cabinet, but can he lead his country? He’s not Blair 2.0. Neither is he another Clement Attlee. The risk is that Starmer’s majority makes him complacent, centrist pragmatism rules, nothing much improves in people’s lives, and he’s ousted at the next election. A lot will depend on how the right deals with the split caused by Reform.

As for France, the big story there was about the rise of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN). President Macron’s call for a snap election for the legislature was occasioned by the RN’s success in the European Parliament election.

France has single-member districts which hold run-off elections if no candidate got over 50 percent in the first round. In the first round, the RN was ahead overall, with a third of the popular vote.

In many districts, three or even four candidates were eligible for the second round. Many left-wing and centrist candidates pulled out, however, to avoid vote-splitting and to combat RN candidates. This gave many voters the unpalatable choice between voting for a party they dislike, in order to block one they detest, or not voting at all.

This tactical approach worked. There was a relatively high turnout in the second round. The RN has now been beaten into third place behind the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), a pre-electoral coalition of four socialist and green parties, and Ensemble, a coalition of five centrist parties, including President Macron’s party.

The election became a contest between the RN and an anyone-but-RN scramble. The anti-RN parties (among whom are some bitter rivals) were determined to prevent the far-right from gaining a majority and to block the young and telegenic Jordan Bardella from becoming prime minister.

RN is a populist nationalist party. Its policy is to reduce net immigration and to crack down on illegal immigration. It’s no longer anti-EU, but seeks to reform the EU from within, to defend French interests. It’s accused by many on the left of being neo-fascist. It resembles Brothers of Italy, whose leader Giorgia Meloni is now Italy’s prime minister.

Meloni was recently seen in a salmon pink trouser suit mustering world leaders at the G7 meeting and schmoozing with the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen. Behind that façade, could there lurk another Duce?

For the sake of electoral success and political pragmatism, these far-right parties have chosen to be less extreme – or more moderate, if you will. One RN tactic was to bring in young candidates who can make an impact on TikTok, to foster a new generation of supporters.

There’s been a lot of doom-casting about the rise of the far-right. The horrors of fascism must not be forgotten, and there has been a worrying rise in racist rhetoric and thuggery evident in both the UK and French election campaigns. The over-used conceit that “history repeats”, however, isn’t the best way to make sense of present developments, even though there are concerns.

France’s President Macron will now have the difficult task of governing with a hung parliament that includes a large left-wing bloc, much of which is hostile towards him. His decision to go for a snap election may have been the right one, however, in that it may have led to a least-bad outcome – from his point of view. Delaying the election may only have seen things deteriorate.

Incumbent prime minister Gabriel Attal, an ally of Macron, has announced he’ll offer his resignation. As no party (or no pre-electoral coalition of parties) will have an absolute majority in the Assemblée Nationale, it won’t be easy to find a new prime minister and a coalition that can defeat any no-confidence motions. The most prominent leader on the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, won’t be any easier for Macron to handle than Bardella would have been.

The French constitution bars another dissolution of the Assemblée for 12 months after an election. France faces a presidential election in 2027 in which RN’s Marine le Pen may run again. Macron will be ineligible next time as he can only serve two terms. He’ll have to buckle in for some turbulence ahead in the meantime.

Really?