An attempted assassination – and political rhetoric goes ballistic in America.

The drastic implications of the attempt on Trump's life.

On Sunday morning (NZ time) a shooter made an unsuccessful attempt on Trump’s life during an outdoor campaign rally. The former president’s instinctual reaction overrode security protocol. He rose on stage above his protection team, punched the air defiantly, shouted “Fight!”, and grabbed the photo-op of the century. That imagery could win an election.

It’s not certain that a bullet caused an injury to his ear. It could have been shrapnel or flying glass. If it was a bullet, then he’s very lucky to be alive. One photographer captured a blurry projectile close to Trump’s head. Was it a miracle, as some are claiming?

Rather than uniting Americans, however, this shocking event reinforces political polarisation.

An immediate reaction from haters of Trump on X was that it must have been “staged” for political effect. Someone suggested that it was done with paintball. (It wasn’t.)

Some on the Right say an assassination was virtually ordered by Biden, who’s quoted from a recent phone-call with political donors: “it’s time to put Trump in a bullseye”. That was a bad choice of metaphor. A conspiracy theory now has it that the commander-in-chief issued an order and a person has followed it. And why weren’t security services guarding all rooftops within range?

The Left, on the other had, blame the rise in political violence on Trump himself. Their Exhibit A is Jan 6 2021. But no one can really win in this blame-game.

We know little so far about the motives of the deceased shooter. It appears that he was acting alone and had no past record of hate-group or foreign affiliations, ideological extremism or mental illness. He’s described as a nerdy but nice twenty-year-old.

Trump’s brush with death helps him electorally, for now. His narratives about being a victim of a witch-hunt, and about being much tougher than the other guy, are confirmed in the minds of his base. There’s been “hand of God” rhetoric about how Trump was “saved by a miracle”. Maybe he’ll stage a “born again” moment.

All of this is likely to sway many undecided voters in his favour, whether or not they believe that God has intervened in temporal affairs.

If Biden was to stand aside, as many Democrats have suggested, if only implicitly, then this event delays any such announcement (assuming that one could have been imminent). In the meantime, Biden has condemned the shooting and called on Americans to turn down the temperature.

The Democrats have wisely cancelled campaign ads that attacked Trump. The theme that Trump is a “threat to democracy” won’t come across well now.

Neither candidate is a different person because of the assassination attempt, but it does significantly alter the course of the contest and the campaign tactics – maybe even the outcome. In recent polls, Trump has been narrowly leading Biden, on a popular-vote basis, even though most Americans hold an unfavorable opinion of Trump. Battleground states could go either way, but Trump has just been handed an advantage.

Trump will be confirmed as Republican candidate at their national convention this week. He’s assured of being acclaimed as a hero. Evangelicals can regard him as touched by the hand God.

There’s still enough time between now and the November election for this effect to wear off. Other events will intervene, not least of which could be a change of Democratic candidate.

Historical precedents (Lenin and Mussolini) show how a failed assassination can reinforce an authoritarian leader’s resolve and grip on power – securing the acquiescence of those around him. It becomes very hard to question him. I hope that’s a speculation too far.

Stay tuned.