What if the wheels really did fall off the Luxon government?

Horror story or comedy?

Here’s a fictional political scenario.

The PM finds that it’s become practically impossible to govern – and politically untenable – working with two coalition partners with over-sized egos who keep grabbing attention, setting the agenda and undermining him. His polls are tanking mid-term, he can’t risk an early election, and things can only get worse. Public confidence in politicians is at an all-time low. But someone needs to take action for the sake of the nation. For the sake of his political future, furthermore, a Hail Mary pass is needed.

He approaches the Governor-General and tenders his resignation and the resignation of his government, but does not advise dissolution of the parliament. He isn’t required to give a formal reason, and the Governor-General acts on his advice. In any case, the Governor-General has been tipped off in advanced as to what’s about to happen. She calmly accepts the resignation, suppressing an impulse to roll her eyeballs.

After all, the coalition agreements weren’t the Governor-General’s business, and they didn’t include t’s and c’s around termination. To abide by the “no surprises” rule at least, the two leaders of the minor coalition parties were advised by phone ten minutes ago. They may be spewing, but, going by their declining polls, not many Kiwis will be sorry to see them dumped.

The leader of the opposition has been waiting in the corridor, ready to play his part. He’s called into the room. He advises the Governor-General that his party agrees to support the “former” PM in office so that he can be reappointed as the “next” PM forthwith. The leader of the opposition will become deputy PM, and together they can re-form the government, as their two parties command a majority in the House. The Governor-General will have responsible ministers sworn in shortly, the minister of finance will keep her job, the re-composed government will defeat any no-confidence motion, and there’ll be no need for a snap election. The new coalition partner accepts the present fiscal plan as a done deal up until the election.

The warrants get printed and signed and, while journalists are still on “breaking news”, the country’s government has been re-formed mid-term.

Now, I know what you’re thinking. I must be out of my mind. Why would Luxon and Hipkins do such a thing – call it a palace coup, if you like – and why would New Zealanders swallow it?

Well, someone has to do some creative thinking, and this was not a prediction. People have asked whether the Luxon government can survive three years.

Getting back to the present… Luxon & Co were established in 2023, but may soon be in receivership. May’s Budget is already looking grim. The leader of one coalition party upstages the PM internationally, and the leader of the other is causing civil strife over the country’s founding document. The opposition parties have a field day – for example, calling for the foreign minister to be stood down. But the major opposition party couldn’t form a credible alternative government, because its main potential coalition partner is embroiled in scandals and can’t be relied on to take office. A National–Labour coalition makes better sense just for two years. When the election campaign arrives, the gloves can come off.

The adults in the room need to impose some order in the meantime. It’s time for some statesmanship. And anyway, they have to earn their pay-rise.

The newly-formed government of national unity will accept responsibility for the mess the country’s in and set about rectifying things as far, and as soon, as possible. The PM and deputy PM will establish protocols around the Cabinet Manual’s “agree to disagree” clause so that voters can see when the parties disagree in principle even as they act in unison – in the interests of the stable government of the whole country.

If this were Episode One of a Netflix series, would it be along the lines of The Thick of It or House of Cards? I’ll let you be the judge. Either way, those who are tired of watching The Three Amigos need to think about alternatives.