Will Chris Hipkins come back as PM?

What does he offer Kiwis to make them want him back?

On election night 2023, caretaker prime minister Chris Hipkins graciously conceded defeat. On election night 2026, will he be proposing the formation of a new Labour-led government?

The last NZ prime minister to pull off such a comeback was National’s Keith Holyoake. He became PM in mid-term in 1957 and then lost to Labour, but returned to win in 1960, followed by 11 glorious years in office. The historical precedent that must keep Hipkins awake at night, on the other hand, is Labour’s Bill Rowling. He became PM mid-term in 1974, and then lost three elections to Robert Muldoon.

Last weekend’s Labour Party conference was partly about rallying the troops, especially in Auckland. Hipkins has admitted that Labour didn’t engage sufficiently with Auckland in 2023. Hence the party needs to energise their volunteers to help, for example, win back the seat of Mt Roskill – which they should never have lost at all. To stand a chance in Auckland, party strategists need to understand why low- and middle-income neighbourhoods in Auckland turned against Labour. Anti-social and criminal behaviour on the streets had something to do with it – among other things.

Did Labour’s razor-thin 18-vote margin in “safe” Mt Albert (formerly held by PMs Clark and Ardern) happen because of a shortage of talented candidates? Did the abysmal result (2,608 votes) for their Auckland Central candidate reveal that they’d deliberately thrown that seat to the Green co-leader Chloe Swarbrick? – even though they say they don’t do electoral deals with other parties.

As well as on-the-ground organisation, any political party needs vision, policy and trustworthy leaders. I’ve dealt with both major parties’ leadership deficits before, so won’t delve into that again now.

Luxon and Hipkins: assessing their leadership capital

Hipkins’s job at this pre-election-year gathering was to inspire the party members and to state a shared vision to carry them forward into the campaign. But he repeated Luxon’s vacuous promise “to grow the economy” – but claiming he can do it better, “lift living standards for everyone – not just a privileged few”. Pity Labour didn’t achieve that last time. As Hipkins said, it does feel “personal” when you lose your job, but there’s no sign that he’ll apologise to those who lost jobs and businesses under the last Labour government.

Chris Hipkins: is he, or is he not, a democratic socialist?

His vision for “a country that rewards hard work and backs aspiration” is time-honoured and, in principle, something that most people would buy into. A big part of the trust deficit that Labour has built up, however, concerns their competence. Implicitly addressing that, Hipkins pledged: “Every promise that I put my name to at the next election will be a promise I know we can deliver on.”

The number of voters who’ll give him and his party the chance to make good on that promise to keep promises remains to be seen. Delivery was not exactly their strong suit last time.

It wasn’t hard, however, for deputy leader Carmel Sepuloni to identify in her speech what Labour doesn’t like about the present government, for example: scrapping of pay equity, attacks on Maoridom and Te Tiriti, high unemployment, high cost of living, cancellation of state housing builds.

In 2023/24, National repealed most of what Labour had done, and Labour will want to repeal a lot of the Luxon government’s policies in return, and bring some of their own rejected ones back. Presumably, Labour intends to reinstate pay equity policies, but would they also re-establish the Māori Health Authority?

Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds talked about Labour’s proposed Future Fund. This aims to “back Kiwi innovation, support high-skill jobs, and ensure the wealth created here stays here.” In addition, there’ll be “a simple capital gains tax [CGT] on profits made from investment and commercial property [that will] reward productive investment that grows the economy, not just the housing market.”

This is economic nationalism, reacting against decades of globalisation, backed by a widespread desire for a “fairer” taxation regime, correcting past “tax cuts for the rich”, and addressing inequality.

Steering investment back towards value-added production onshore, encouraging talented workers to stay, building opportunities close to home, and repatriating revenue streams are all in line with an international trend of populist industrial policy.

The CGT will be administratively complex and may not generate much income. The projected sums rise to little more than one percent of current tax revenue, and Labour’s already ear-marked it for three free GP visits per year – even for the rich. But it keeps the base (more or less) happy that something is being done to make the tax system “fair” by clawing 28% back from landlords when they profit from rising house prices – windfalls that come with little effort and no innovation.

In an interview with TVNZ’s Jack Tame, Barbara Edmonds fielded the kinds of questions about budget deficits and the CGT that will be put to Labour more harshly during the election campaign. Edmonds repeated the self-evident statements that “it’s all about choices”, that what mattered were Labour’s “values”, and that she was most concerned with how people feel about their own financial circumstances. And of course, many people aren’t feeling good about that at the moment.

How voters feel about their own life-situation can influence their choices on election day – sometimes irrationally, as our feelings aren’t always in tune with practical reality. We can anticipate, however, the withering attacks that will come during election debates when Labour’s forced into “explaining is losing” on economic credibility and fiscal sustainability, for instance about the CGT and pay equity. Will they keep falling back onto vague notions of feelings, values and choices? Their opponents will have a field day anyway.

So, can Hipkins lead the next government?

The public statement that Labour will fully compete with Te Pāti Māori (TPM) candidates for all seven of the Māori seats was distancing Labour from the openly dysfunctional and toxic TPM. Hipkins needs to deflect barbs about “a coalition of chaos” in the event that he becomes prime minister. As TPM turns itself into a party with which no one would want to work, it raises the probability that a post-electoral deal with NZ First could be needed by Labour to secure a majority. When the numbers are known after the election, then the real talk begins. Winston Peters is the most experienced deal-maker in the House and NZ First are consistently polling over the 5% threshold. Don’t underestimate Winston “Middleman” Peters.

If Labour can win back even close to half of the roughly 677,000 voters who turned their backs on them between 2020 and 2023, then they could form the next government. Opinion polls are suggesting that they’re heading in that general direction. But the last three elections have proven to be utterly unpredictable at this stage in the cycle.

I hope you’ll continue to follow Politics Happens in 2026 as we enjoy the ups and downs of an election year!