Labour is now up against an economic cycle pushing up green-shoots, the potential election chaos of Peters and NZ First, and most of all, it’s fighting it’s very own foundation identity, because the party is being controlled by a managerialist neoliberal who wants to live in the centre and tinker with the status quo. Critically, Labour are out of step with many on the left who are desperate to see genuinely innovative and transformative approaches to today’s challenges. Therefore, the odds of Labour winning in 2026 are looking more and more like an under-capitalised moonshot, but hey, dreams are free. At least the open question about whether Labour have been listening and learning has been answered.
I'm resolutely "get the Tories out", though Chippy can and should be bolder. He's likely betting on a "thousand small targets" strategy to somehow both placate the support base and avoid turning off floating voters. Nonetheless the "Mamdani effect" does seem to show an appetite among the public for boldness, when the alternative is undead Reaganomics/Thatcherism.
RE electorate seats there were definitely no "deals" - parties don't engage like that - but in a way Labour and/or the candidate may have thrown to a degree.
Aucklanders (and Labour) knew that in a year when the Govt was under heat for covid backlash and a lot of inner-city crime, there was no-one they could put up that was going to beat Chlöe.
The decision on who stands is based on who has put in their time, made the right connections and is owed their spot in the limelight. In any case they knew what was going to happen so I doubt party or candidate put in a lot of resources to the AK Central fight.
No. Whenever a headline is a question the answer is almost always NO. If Hipkins was a leader he would have had a plan already formulated in case something happened to the PM. He didn't. Hell.. I have a plan if they ever come to me and ask me to take over.. and it is written down and I bet it would be better than anything Hipkins could come up with .. in fact get Chris to contact me and I will share my plan with him so long as I get the credit for the creation. Paul
I'm one of the 677k 'back-turners' and the chances are, with extreme reluctance, I will vote Labour if they don't make stupid commitments about housing, three waters blahblahblah. Pay equity was handled very poorly by the current government but if it's reinstated, voters will want to know the costings, as Chris Trotter astutely observes. I'm not holding my breath. Increasing super eligibility by a year or two in a phased in policy is surely a must (though tough on manual workers) and will take a while to yield savings, while the CGT policy is very moderate. If Ms Edmonds and Chippy get out their abacuses and do a public demonstration of how it all adds up, I'm ready to be impressed. But all this not holding of breath is becoming tedious...
In my opinion, the COVID years demonstrated to Aucklanders that the Wellington political class and its bureaucracies—such as the Ministry of Health—cannot be fully trusted. Chris Hipkins, who was part of that leadership, faces a significant challenge if he believes he can regain Aucklanders’ confidence. Many people feel they have had enough of policies perceived as social engineering and misleading communication from the political establishment in Wellington. NZ First as much as I also distrust that they will, do the right thing its better they are in power to thow some shade on the over optimistic Labour machine, we've been burnt too many times by their outright lies.
Thanks for sharing your analysis. Did you, or anyone you know, attend the Labour conference? It was very hard for me to see whether Labour Party members who attended the Auckland conference felt good about the policy announcements.
I've heard various grumblings from Labour members I know personally about their dissatisfaction with the direction of the party. They say that they've felt shut out of the policy making process for a long time, and that the policy decisions seem to be pre-determined at a high level, instead of developed organically at the grass roots level.
"When the numbers are known after the election, then the real talk begins. Winston Peters is the most experienced deal-maker in the House and NZ First are consistently polling over the 5% threshold."
But will NZF continue polling as well when more of those thinking of voting for the party realise they don't know whether they are voting for a National- or Labour-led govt?
I think it's a major strategic error for Winston Peters to open the door to going with Labour. A lot of voters haven't forgiven him for putting Ardern into power in 2017.
And Helen Clark in 2005 after intimating he'd sit on the cross-benches and not take "the baubles of office".
I'm unconvinced that strategy will work for him next year. Before the 2023 election he had to repeatedly affirm that he wouldn't go with Labour after the election because it was clear voters didn't trust him.
I'm surprised he thinks that he can pull off his old tricks again in 2026.
I think his vote will suffer markedly unless he puts his cards on the table before the election.
And when Winston retires for good, his most obvious successor Shane Jones somehow doesn’t have the same level of charisma. Or any other members of his caucus.
Labour is now up against an economic cycle pushing up green-shoots, the potential election chaos of Peters and NZ First, and most of all, it’s fighting it’s very own foundation identity, because the party is being controlled by a managerialist neoliberal who wants to live in the centre and tinker with the status quo. Critically, Labour are out of step with many on the left who are desperate to see genuinely innovative and transformative approaches to today’s challenges. Therefore, the odds of Labour winning in 2026 are looking more and more like an under-capitalised moonshot, but hey, dreams are free. At least the open question about whether Labour have been listening and learning has been answered.
I'm resolutely "get the Tories out", though Chippy can and should be bolder. He's likely betting on a "thousand small targets" strategy to somehow both placate the support base and avoid turning off floating voters. Nonetheless the "Mamdani effect" does seem to show an appetite among the public for boldness, when the alternative is undead Reaganomics/Thatcherism.
RE electorate seats there were definitely no "deals" - parties don't engage like that - but in a way Labour and/or the candidate may have thrown to a degree.
Aucklanders (and Labour) knew that in a year when the Govt was under heat for covid backlash and a lot of inner-city crime, there was no-one they could put up that was going to beat Chlöe.
The decision on who stands is based on who has put in their time, made the right connections and is owed their spot in the limelight. In any case they knew what was going to happen so I doubt party or candidate put in a lot of resources to the AK Central fight.
No. Whenever a headline is a question the answer is almost always NO. If Hipkins was a leader he would have had a plan already formulated in case something happened to the PM. He didn't. Hell.. I have a plan if they ever come to me and ask me to take over.. and it is written down and I bet it would be better than anything Hipkins could come up with .. in fact get Chris to contact me and I will share my plan with him so long as I get the credit for the creation. Paul
I'm one of the 677k 'back-turners' and the chances are, with extreme reluctance, I will vote Labour if they don't make stupid commitments about housing, three waters blahblahblah. Pay equity was handled very poorly by the current government but if it's reinstated, voters will want to know the costings, as Chris Trotter astutely observes. I'm not holding my breath. Increasing super eligibility by a year or two in a phased in policy is surely a must (though tough on manual workers) and will take a while to yield savings, while the CGT policy is very moderate. If Ms Edmonds and Chippy get out their abacuses and do a public demonstration of how it all adds up, I'm ready to be impressed. But all this not holding of breath is becoming tedious...
In my opinion, the COVID years demonstrated to Aucklanders that the Wellington political class and its bureaucracies—such as the Ministry of Health—cannot be fully trusted. Chris Hipkins, who was part of that leadership, faces a significant challenge if he believes he can regain Aucklanders’ confidence. Many people feel they have had enough of policies perceived as social engineering and misleading communication from the political establishment in Wellington. NZ First as much as I also distrust that they will, do the right thing its better they are in power to thow some shade on the over optimistic Labour machine, we've been burnt too many times by their outright lies.
Fair comment, thanks. I think you're reflecting a widespread sentiment – one that the Labour Party would rather pretend isn't out there.
Thanks for sharing your analysis. Did you, or anyone you know, attend the Labour conference? It was very hard for me to see whether Labour Party members who attended the Auckland conference felt good about the policy announcements.
I've heard various grumblings from Labour members I know personally about their dissatisfaction with the direction of the party. They say that they've felt shut out of the policy making process for a long time, and that the policy decisions seem to be pre-determined at a high level, instead of developed organically at the grass roots level.
I did talk with a couple of people who attended. I didn't hear such grumbling, but I'm sure it's out there.
"When the numbers are known after the election, then the real talk begins. Winston Peters is the most experienced deal-maker in the House and NZ First are consistently polling over the 5% threshold."
But will NZF continue polling as well when more of those thinking of voting for the party realise they don't know whether they are voting for a National- or Labour-led govt?
I think it's a major strategic error for Winston Peters to open the door to going with Labour. A lot of voters haven't forgiven him for putting Ardern into power in 2017.
As before previous elections, he'll keep his cards close to his chest.
Or for that matter, going with Bolger in 1996.
And Helen Clark in 2005 after intimating he'd sit on the cross-benches and not take "the baubles of office".
I'm unconvinced that strategy will work for him next year. Before the 2023 election he had to repeatedly affirm that he wouldn't go with Labour after the election because it was clear voters didn't trust him.
I'm surprised he thinks that he can pull off his old tricks again in 2026.
I think his vote will suffer markedly unless he puts his cards on the table before the election.
And when Winston retires for good, his most obvious successor Shane Jones somehow doesn’t have the same level of charisma. Or any other members of his caucus.