Zohran Mamdani: how significant is his victory for the Left?

And can it be replicated?

Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the election for mayor of New York is making waves around the world. A politician campaigning on socialist policies to support those struggling with the cost of living in the Big Apple, and vowing to make the rich pay, has won by a solid margin in what is, ironically, the nerve-centre of global capitalism.

Now, that’s eyebrow-raising. But it needs to be seen in context, rather than leaping to conclusions about a new Zeitgeist or jumping on a Mamdani bandwagon. (I’m assuming readers are familiar with Mamdani. If not, you can watch him here.)

America’s Democratic Party enjoyed a good week all round. Just as important as Mamdani’s win were the two victories for Democrats in gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. In both of those state contests, the vote swung to the left, pretty much across the board, and more than expected. But those two successful Democratic candidates, both of whom are women, are middle-of-the-road types. The swings in those states can be seen as a public verdict against the Trump administration, as much as anything.

The New York mayoralty contest had a different dynamic, as Mamdani was up against another Democrat (Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent) as well as a Republican (Curtis Sliwa). The latter was hardly in the race, and Trump was encouraging New Yorkers to vote for Cuomo – a message that seems to have worked only in the wealthier, conservative neighborhoods. Clearly Trump despises Mamdani so much (for instance, calling him a communist) that he’d rather his fellow New Yorkers voted for a “check’s-in-the-mail” Democrat.

But a Mamdani-style candidate won’t win an election just anywhere. New York is not the same as New Jersey, let alone New Zealand or New South Wales.

If such a simple translation were even possible, then why did the late Efeso Collins, who campaigned for free public transport, and who would have been Auckland’s first Pacific mayor, lose decisively to the pragmatic and conservative Wayne Brown in 2022?

For that matter, why did Labour leader Chris Hipkins, who campaigned on “bread and butter issues”, lose in 2023? Left-wing readers may say the answer to that is obvious: he wasn’t bold or radical enough, and wouldn’t adopt a wealth or capital-gains tax at that time. Therefore, it would seem to follow, Hipkins should in future be more like the amazing Mamdani who campaigned consistently and boldly on affordability and on taxing the rich, and who downplayed the self-evident “identity” issues of race and religion.

But it’s never that simple. Let’s look at some election numbers.

While Mamdani didn’t run on an identity politics or DEI platform, the fact is that voter groups who were more likely to vote for him were young and non-white – that is, they’re more likely to identify with him. 56% of non-whites voted for Mamdani, compared with 45% of whites. On the other hand, he is not at all popular with most Jewish New Yorkers due to his stance on Gaza, his being Muslim and their rational fears about anti-Semitism. So there were identity-politics elements (negative and positive) underlying the election, regardless of Mamdani’s solid efforts to stay on message about the city’s hard economic realities.

And the raw number of votes was outstanding. There were just over two million votes cast, almost double the numbers in each of the previous four elections, going back to 2009. A massive turnout for Mamdani from among minority groups and younger people, who had been less likely to vote, was decisive this time. And Mamdani can take credit for mobilising those voters. The danger is that this turnout evaporates at the next election.

Note that, while Mamdani won 50% of the vote, Cuomo – a 67-year-old machine politician with a record of sexual harassment and an endorsement from Trump – clocked up a respectable 41%. Mamdani’s political future is far from secure if a guy like Cuomo could still bite his heels and if his support-base normally doesn’t even vote. If Mamdani doesn’t deliver, he’s toast, because those voters will soon forget about him.

Which brings us to his next problem. Like Jacinda Ardern did in 2017, mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani has excited great hopes within his constituency. But he now faces the huge obstacles of political reality: a massive bureaucracy, some extremely wealthy and well-connected vested interests and a hostile president who’ll use him as a punching-bag. And he is simply inexperienced in handling such a barrel of vipers.

Mamdani is undoubtedly a highly intelligent articulate person with a track-record in a state assembly, but he lacks management experience at any level greater than a group of chums. His age (34) will not be an asset once in office. One may wish him well, but, chances are, he’ll be ostracised by an influential elite, if not eaten alive.

He’ll have trouble pulling together a coalition of actors to implement his vision.

Mamdani’s victory in New York is exciting and inspiring for the Left. But New York is not comparable with anywhere else, and getting radical change in a city like that can’t be easy. Furthermore, each leader is unique, and voters are acutely aware these days of inauthenticity and fakery. Just as I’d advise any right-wing politician (not that they’d listen to me!) to let Trump do Trump and not try to emulate, let alone imitate, him, I’d advise left-wing leaders to put their authentic selves on the line, and not the mask of a Muslim immigrant who’s made it in New York.

The cost of living crisis is real, however, and politicians, of the left, right or centre, need to propose achievable policies and to get results. This is a core task for contemporary government. That’s the basic significance of Mamdani’s win.

Source: NBC News, URL: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2025-elections/new-york-city-mayor-results