Donald Trump has swept aside his closest Republican rival, Nikki Haley, in the South Carolina primary by roughly 60 to 40 – even though it’s Haley’s home state.
For November’s presidential election, it’s looking like Donald Trump will be (or already is) the Republican contender and Jo Biden will be selected to run for a second term.
Biden’s age has been an issue. Born in 1942 (around the same time as Jimi Hendrix), he’s pre–baby-boom. If re-elected, he’ll be 82 by the time he’s sworn in for another four-year term. You’ve probably seen footage of him showing that age appears to be taking a toll on him, but so far perhaps not at the point where he couldn’t take sound advice and make decisions. How will he be doing at 86 though? There are doubts about his fitness for office.
Biden is unlikely to step aside voluntarily as candidate at this stage, and removing and replacing him would be politically costly. If he stays in, he’ll need a very good running mate, as that person would substitute for him, if the need arose.
Aside from his own age, Biden has a big problem with (mainly younger) Democrats who are pro-Palestinian and object to his failure to stop Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza. Will they even vote this time?
Trump is ‘only’ 77 but has his problems too. There’s a slew of criminal charges against him, but these don’t bar him legally from standing for president (see my earlier post). He’s clearly in the lead in the Republican primaries and slightly ahead in polling averages that match him against Biden.
Polling for the last two presidential elections wasn’t very accurate – underestimating support for Trump. But presently, Real Clear Politics poll averages put Trump ahead of Biden nationally by 1.9 percentage points. (Their figures are updated frequently so may differ, if you’re checking.)
For Trump to win in November, one simple pathway for him is to regain three of the swing states that flipped to Biden in 2020 – if all others remain as they were. Winning in Georgia, Michigan and Arizona, for example, would give Trump the electoral-college votes he needs. Polling averages put him well ahead of Biden in those states (by 6.8, 4.6 and 4.7 points respectively, at the time of writing). Swing voters in just a few states effectively decide the result – and they call that ‘democracy’.
Majorities of Americans, however, disapprove of the job that Biden is doing as president and feel that their country is heading in the wrong direction.
The actual election will be more complicated than the above hypothetical outcome, but it shows how close Trump is to winning.
If he does win, you can be sure he won’t be complaining about widespread electoral fraud this time. On the other side, many Americans will refuse to see him as a legitimate president. According to Jackie Calmes of LA Times, Trump is “not fit to be president”.
On character grounds, I agree. But why did he succeed in 2016? In the context of the times, Trump’s presidency can be seen as a logical outcome. It’s put simply by complexity scientist Peter Turchin:
“What gave him the presidency was a combination of conflict among the elites and Trump’s ability to channel a strain of popular discontent that was more widespread and virulent than many people understood, or wanted to understand.” (Turchin, End Times, p. 15).
By “conflict among the elites”, Turchin means that the number of elected offices stays the same, while the number of wealthy and powerful aspirants rises, so the intensification of competition leads to bending and breaking of rules and conventions. Trump, the ultimate rule-breaker and political outsider, was almost designed for success in such circumstances.
On the hustings in Michigan recently, Trump got a big personal endorsement from an auto-workers’ rep. Trump’s message was about bringing manufacturing back into the US and protecting jobs. His mercantilist economic policies may not be practically successful if he gets back into office, but his appeal to that popular discontent works ahead of the election.
Genocidal campaign? See ya.