Centre-left governments fall like dominoes. Welcome to 2025

What might it all mean for NZ Labour ahead of the 2026 election?

The stars are not lining up in favour of social-democratic parties in 2025.

It’s not often I make predictions. But elections in 2025 will see centre-left governments fall in Germany, Canada, Australia and Norway, possibly in that order, pending the finalisation of dates, and with the possible exception of Australia.

In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote after the Free Democrats (FDP) left the coalition with center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens, following disagreements about the budget. Scholz has led “the most unpopular German government since the end of World War II” (Sabine Kinkartz, DW). An early election is set for 23 February, which is likely to be followed by weeks of negotiations to form a new government. Opinion polls show the Christian-democrats (CDU/CSU), who promise to lower taxes and stop illegal migration, leading on figures over 30%. The SPD has fallen to around 16%. The conservative nationalist AfD is polling second, just under 20%, but so far no other party has been prepared to go into a coalition with them. The CDU leader, and contender to become the next Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has said he won’t cooperate with the AfD. The ramming of a car into a busy Weihnachtsmarkt in Magdeburg by a Saudi immigrant reignited debates about immigration and security – which may help the AfD electorally, despite the suspect having reportedly endorsed them. A government’s first responsibility is to protect its own people, and such disastrous security failures foster a sense of betrayal that fuels populist politics. AfD policy says, “If a shared return to a ‘Europe of Nations’ is not possible with the current partners in the EU, Germany must follow the example of Great Britain and leave the EU.” Another grand coalition (Christian-democratic/social-democratic) may be the outcome, as established parties move to keep AfD away from power.

In Canada, an early demise of the Trudeau (Liberal Party-led) government looks inevitable after their coalition partner, the New Democratic Party, announced it will vote no confidence in the government when the House returns from winter recess. Calls from within his own party for Trudeau to stand aside have been getting louder. The shock resignation of finance minister and deputy PM Chrystia Freeland was the last nail in the coffin. The Opposition want an election as soon as possible. US President-elect Donald Trump has thrown Canadian politics into even deeper turmoil. His dire economic threat to impose 25% trade tariffs and his taunt about Canada becoming “the 51st state” put the boot into a best friend and neighbour while they’re down – a kind of treachery common back in Machiavelli’s day. The Conservative Party has surged into the 40s in opinion polls. The likely next prime minister of Canada, Pierre Poilievre, is an articulate and experienced politician who’s campaigning on the cost of living and on rolling back carbon pricing.

Australia’s Labor prime minister, Anthony Albanese, hasn’t yet revealed the date of their next election – but it’ll probably happen some time between March and May. It often makes sense to “go early”, and Albanese may use the announcement of a polling date to recapture the initiative for the new year. Labor is falling behind the Coalition in opinion polls. A rightward shift gained momentum along with the Indigenous Voice referendum, which was defeated by 60% of voters on a 90% turnout in October 2023. So there could be a change of government in 2025, but it’s still looking close. Albanese could pull off another victory, but he’ll have to work hard to regain Australians’ confidence. Prediction markets are pricing in a victory for the Coalition.

Norway’s Labour prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre meanwhile is facing calls to step aside, while the party secretary Kjersti Stenseng has announced her resignation. On current polls, Støre’s Labour/Center coalition government would be defeated. Labour won 26.3% in the 2021 election, but is down well below 20 lately. A new right-wing majority coalition could be formed by the Progress and Conservative parties. The Progress Party won 11.6% in 2021, but it’s polling steadily rose in 2024, putting them in the lead in the mid-20s, ahead of the Conservatives. The Progress Party blends (or includes factions of) economic liberalism and national conservatism. The latter pushes law and order and strict immigration controls, including deportation of immigrants who are undocumented or guilty of crimes. The election is scheduled for 8 September, and it’ll be one to watch.

UK prime minister Keir Starmer, who’s rated negatively by large majorities in recent polls, paid his Norwegian counterpart a visit in December. UK Labour won a sizeable majority in the Commons in 2024, but only with a third of votes, and only on a 60% turnout. So, although UK Labour apparently bucked the trend examined here, they don’t have much political capital to show for it. The right-wing parties (Conservative and Reform) are, between them, currently well ahead of Labour in opinion polls.

As an aside, Elon Musk is involved, boots and all, in US politics, and is now using his global platform to influence other countries’ elections. He published an op-ed piece in Welt am Sontag praising the right-wing AfD party’s “political realism”, and he’s insulted Germany’s president and prime minister on X. He’s in discussion with Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, to donate reportedly as much as $100 million to that party. Which lucky country will Musk target next? And for how long will people countenance such blatant interference by the world’s wealthiest man?

Musk’s estimated net worth exceeds the total assets of the NZ government, but he could influence NZ politics just by publishing some unsubstantiated opinions on X – at no extra cost to him. Would he praise Winston Peters for his “political realism”, I wonder?

So it won’t be a good year for centre-left incumbents in elections in 2025 in some leading democracies. But this could be interpreted in different ways. Is it just a part of a general anti-incumbent sentiment, regardless of whether a sitting government is left or right? Or are people turning away from left politics in particular? Could it even mean that Nigel Farage was on to something when he declared in 2016 (with Brexit, Trump and all that) that we were witnessing the beginning of a “global political revolution”? Will Donald Trump’s planned assault on the administrative state do long-term damage? Or will there be a revival of the left (once they get their act together) as a reaction against Trumpian chaos and authoritarian overreach?

New Zealand is up for an election probably in September or October 2026. Does the trend outlined above suggest that NZ Labour, who aim to oust an incumbent right-wing coalition, should be worried? One could readily answer “yes” on the grounds that parties should always be worried about adverse political trends occurring elsewhere, especially in countries with shared values.

Then again, one could advise them not to worry too much (and advise National not to get complacent), as New Zealand doesn’t always follow international trends. In 2017, for example, the New Zealand election wasn’t much affected by the populist politics sweeping the globe at that time. By virtue of its isolation, illegal or poorly controlled immigration isn’t a hot political kumara, unlike countries surveyed above.

If Labour want to win back the centre voters who dumped them in 2023 and shifted right, then the first step is easily stated: they need to listen to middle- and low-income New Zealanders without branding them “wrong”. They need to hear the opinions of people who wouldn’t normally pass the Red tribe’s ideological purity test – and without visibly holding their noses. Having suffered a heavy defeat in 2023, Chris Hipkins lacks the heft to lead public opinion, so he might instead listen and follow.

There are two main sources of political contest at present in New Zealand: an economic crisis, which people experience through high prices, low wages and unemployment, and a founding document, the Treaty of Waitangi, over which a deep difference of opinion divides the country. Can Labour win over voters in the centre on either dimension?

On economic policy, so far Labour’s main pitch is to tax the rich some more. That may make the system look fairer to many Kiwis, but it won’t, on its own, reduce inflation, boost wages or create jobs. A lot would depend on how the proceeds are spent or saved, and Labour is already promising spending before they’ve finalised their new revenue sources. They relaunched their boat in 2024 before fixing the leaks.

Labour strongly oppose the Act Party’s Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Bill. They can’t let their potential coalition partners, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori (TPM), dominate that debate, however. That means there’ll be a contest for media attention, and it’s hard to outdo TPM’s impact on this topic. Conciliatory statesmanship doesn’t seem to be an option, as Labour would be punished by left-wing voters for compromising. Hence Labour has to go radical in order to be heard, and their Māori caucus will step up. But, again, that leaves them vulnerable, as a silent majority, feeling that Labour doesn’t speak for them on nationhood, may silently not vote for them. The Australian experience is a warning.

Labour needs the crucial middle-NZ voters to become sufficiently disillusioned with National, and sufficiently charmed by Labour, and thus to swing leftward by late 2026. Alternatively, the electorate polarises, and the parties of the left only raid votes from one another as they compete for attention.

Opinion polls wobbled around a bit in late 2024 as the Treaty Bill caused protests and controversy. I’m not predicting which way they’ll lean in 2025, but the political year will begin with some ill-tempered rhetoric, as it normally does, only louder than usual. Middle-of-the-road voters will be feeling unheard or unrepresented. The examples from some comparable countries suggest that, at this stage in history, the left loses such battles. But there’s still time for NZ Labour to plan a way through for late 2026.

Iceland has shown how a social-democratic party can overturn a fractious three-party coalition government. Iceland’s Alþingi (Althingi) is the world’s oldest parliament, and elections are proportional, with an open list and multi-member constituencies. The election on 30 November saw Samfylkingin (the Social Democratic Alliance) win 20.75% of the vote (up from 9.93% in 2021) and hence the largest share of seats (15 out of 63). The upshot is a three-party coalition, led by 36-year-old prime minister Kristrún Frostadóttir of the Social Democrats. Her coalition partners are Viðreisn (Liberal Reform) and Flokkur fólksins (the pro-welfare People’s Party). Together they command just 36 of the 63 seats, but they’re calling it a majority. These three parties are headed by women, affectionately dubbed “the valkyries”. Will this coalition be any more successful than the last though? Iceland looks set to hold a referendum, no later than 2027, on whether to continue accession talks with the EU, as public opinion there seems to be swinging in favour of joining. Global trends don’t unfold consistently everywhere at once.

“While the good of an individual is a desirable thing, what is good for a people or for cities is a noble and more godlike thing. Our enquiry, then, is a kind of political science, since these are the ends it is aiming at.”

Aristotle, Nicomachean Ethics, translation Roger Crisp.

Musk would benefit from reading Aristotle.