Harris v Trump: the great debate

Was there a winner?

With opinion polls tied, Trump and Harris have had a crucial – and fiery – pre-election debate. It was the first time the two had met face to face, and Harris’s opening gambit was to cross the stage and shake hands with Trump.

Harris had to do three basic things: show that she can look and sound like a president, undermine her opponent, and clearly express her values and policies. She achieved all three, especially the attack. She kept her composure, gazed ironically at Trump as he spoke, held him to account for his words and actions, and rattled him with phrases like “same old tired playbook”.

She often looked and sounded a bit like Barack Obama, and showed her concern for people and for the democratic rule of law. A couple of times she was hesistant in speaking, as if struggling to recall her lines. But she rallied herself to get some key policy messages across, such as a $50,000 tax deduction for small business start-ups, and a $25,000 down payment for first-home buyers.

She appealed to voters to turn a new page and elect a new generation of leadership. And she revealed that she’s a gun owner, to counter the accusation that she’ll “take away your guns”.

Trump had, in theory, a slightly easier job, as his trademark style is well known. But he too had to undermine his opponent, and clearly express his values and policies. All he’d needed to do up against Biden was to look sane, while Biden’s infirmity did the rest. This time, Trump unleashed his forceful rhetoric, but got angry, started to rant, and, when he ran out of ideas, returned to attacking immigrants, even when way off topic.

Trump unleashed his attack dogs. He blamed the Biden administration for “the highest inflation in the history of the country” and having “destroyed the economy”. Neither claim is true (see below). He accused Democrats of wanting to have “abortion in the ninth month” and even “execution after birth”. He said they were forcing illegal immigrants to undergo gender-transition surgery. Crime rates were falling in other countries because they’re sending their criminals to the United States. He baselessly accused immigrants of eating people’s pets. This was all making sense to the core MAGA constituency.

Trump surely wasn’t doing himself a favour, though, when he referred to Hungary’s authoritarian leader Viktor Orbán as a big supporter. Orbán supposedly thinks that the “most feared person is Donald Trump”.

The main weakness that he pinpointed in Harris was her track-record as VP: if she had any policies, then why hadn’t she implemented them these last three and half years? “She doesn’t have a plan”, he said.

Trump was more rigoroulsy fact-checked by the two moderators than was Harris. But Harris was wrong to accuse Trump of wanting to pass a national law banning abortion. Trump repeatedly said he was satisfied that the matter had been devolved to the states when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade. Nevertheless, Harris had the inside running on reproductive choice for women, and she repeatedly referred to “Trump abortion bans” in many states, pinning the blame on him (not the state legislators).

When Harris raised Project 2025, the ultra-conservative policy handbook, and claimed that Trump intended to implement it, Trump asserted, “I have nothing to do with Project 2025”. Although he was commander-in-chief on Jan 6, 2021, and he rallied the mob, he claimed that he “had nothing to do with” the storming of the Capitol.

The economy

Prior to the debate, numerous commentators were arguing that Trump “wins on policy”. And many Trump supporters have been saying they felt better off when he was in office.

Economic statistics, however, don’t support the claim that, in aggregate terms, Americans were better off during Trump’s time in office (Jan 2017–Jan 2021). If we give him the benefit of the doubt about the damage caused by Covid-19 in 2020 (that is, assume that it would have been about as bad no matter who was president), then there’s no statistical evidence that the US economy was performing better under Trump than under Biden. I’ve looked at GDP growth per capita, inflation, unemployment and income inequality.

Unemployment spiked in early 2020, but then steadily declined. It was declining when Biden took office and continued to do so. It rose a tiny bit earlier on this year, but not to alarming levels, and it’s come down a bit again recently. Growth per capita has been strong in the meanwhile. Income inequality in the US is always one of the highest in the OECD, no matter who’s in office. Inflation has come down from 7 to under 3 percent.

Trump’s 2018 trade-war with China backfired on the US economy, but protectionist policies continued under Biden. According to economist Erica York, “the Trump-Biden tariffs have raised prices and reduced output and employment, producing a net negative impact on the US economy.” It’s hard to believe that Trump’s proposed new tariffs would benefit the economy. They may have a short-term political appeal for the voters whom Trump is targeting in swing states.

People’s evaluations of economic conditions are partisan anyway. According to a Pew survey in May:

• “Republicans expressed far more positive views of the economy than did Democrats throughout most of Donald Trump’s presidency.

• “Democrats have been consistently more likely than Republicans to rate conditions as excellent or good during Biden’s presidency. However, their ratings have been far less positive than Republicans’ ratings of the economy were when Trump was president.” (Pew Research Center.)

Trump supporters are viewing the former president’s time in office through rose-tinted economic spectacles, but politically-motivated bias is normal. We can’t predict the future, but, based on past performance, there’s no reason to think that Trump would objectively be “better for the economy”.