30 Comments

The reactionism has always been there, the only real difference between Trump & his predecessors is the messaging. Namely swapping out the dog whistle for a megaphone.

ICYMI, the Research Association of NZ has publicly come out about Curia's departure:

https://web.archive.org/web/20240823060005/https://www.researchassociation.org.nz/Update

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I tried reading Farrar's blog about the resignation from RANZ, but it was very long and I didn't take it all in. He seems to have been targetted with complaints. Mind you, my own experience with RANZ hasn't been great either.

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That is simply not right

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I suggest the causes of Trump's increased popularity in Australia and New Zealand include these. 1. He was president for four years, which stabilised his brand and made him seem a little less disreputable. Do you remember how his look became much smoother in the first months of his presidency? In particular I remember that his hair became less orange and more silvery. 2. Because the Republican Party has united behind him, he's now a major symbol of right-wing thinking globally. So supporting him is no longer just supporting a maverick populist (although he's still one of those), but is primarily support for a portfolio of right-wing views. Thus the right wing of parties like the Nationals, or here in Australia the Liberals, are feeling that supporting Trump is just part of their political position. But also, as you observe, Trump's overt sexism speaks to people who find feminism and LGTBQI+ rights threatening and so want to turn back the clock to the 1950s, when women were homemakers or Playboy bunnies, men ran the show, homosexuality was illegal and abortions were hard to get legally. I was intrigued that Trump's views (at least as reported) include a fondness for old brick public buildings, or white ones with a facade of pillars - 1950s small-town American architecture as opposed to modern and postmodern "art" buildings. (Weren't the 1950s great! - not.) So for these three reasons it's unsurprising that his polling popularity in Australia and NZ has risen substantially, particularly with male voters. I'm not sure the trend is that alarming. Those right wings of the major right-of-centre parties have been with us for a long time. And those parties tend to be the citadel of sexism. The repeated failures of the Australian Coalition to increase their proportion of female MPs are fascinating to watch, though I feel sorry for their senior women who keep being nobbled by the boys' club and end up leaving the party.

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Great comments, thank you, Kai! Not much I can add, other than that the right in NZ (National and NZ First, not so much ACT) has been nostalgic, and not very forward-looking.

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By "stabilised" I'm guessing you mean "laundered".

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Thanks - yes, "laundered" would have been more accurate.

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Hardly surprising for a number of reasons, all of which in New Zealand society reflect the racist, sexist, increasingly conservative, anti environment, self-seeking, rabidly phobic elements that are on the rise world-wide, attitudes that are increasingly swallowed by the gullible and promoted by the self-interested powerful. The only thing that's missing from our coalition government's various Trump-like characteristics is the orange roughy- look!

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A highly partisan response lacking credibility in my opinion

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No mention of RFK Jnr and his recently joining with Trump. RFK jnr has significant support but the Dems pulled every dirty trick in the book to make him disappear. Trump with Kennedy is a dead cert to win now.

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HI Richard. It's a good point. But the polling nerds in the US don't think it makes much difference:

https://abcnews.go.com/538/momentum-rfk-jrs-endorsement-give-trump/story?id=113111150

It's still a toss-up at the moment. But a while to go yet!

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There are other reasons for support of Trump other than the usual “left wing” tropes. I consider myself a peace loving “libertarian” left winger with a deep distrust of power (ie anarchist in the philosophical sense) and supporter of the working class and just before reading your article decided I’d prefer Trump to win the 2024 election. I’d not consider myself a Trump supporter in any sense in terms of ideological alignment etc. my “support” for him winning in 2024 is similar to RFK’s and that is the “hope” that he can wind back, at least a little, in terms of support for “forever wars” offshore. I’m highly sceptical that he can/will achieve this but it is obvious from Kamala’s speech yesterday that she represents continuation of American exceptionalism internationally which in my opinion represents the biggest existential threat to humans ever - makes the urgency that people place on the climate change "emergency" look myopic

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Great comments, thanks, Malcolm. Trump certainly doesn't like wars. He says he'd end the conflict in Ukraine – which would be to the advantage of Putin, although it's more complex now that Ukraine has occupied some Russian territory. Trump would be easier on Israel than even Biden has been. So your scepticism about DT is justified, I'd say. And yet there's no sign that the Dems (Biden or Harris) would be a force for global peace either. Harris's acceptance speech did promote American might, as if trying to outdo the right, so your scepticism about her is justified too. Cheers. Grant

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Give in to bullies and aggressors is what he means. If he agrees that .. thin end of the wedge ..

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How far would a flare-up in the Middle East test Trump's isolationism?

And if America faces a truly dire threat, it's not from outside its borders, but from within. Hint: the ideology behind it killed more Americans than both World Wars & Vietnam combined.

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Trump has made threatening noises to Iran in the past.

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Would he go full blast on Iran like Dubya did with Iraq, as opposed to surgical strikes as with Solemaini? The Ayatollah regime needs to go, but it's bigger & stronger than Iraq under Saddam. Going Iraq on Iran would make Vietnam & the Soviet-Afghan Wars look like picnics in comparison.

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I agree with that! Attacking Iran would be a really bad idea. But DT did once threaten to destroy their heritage sites.

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I think it serves no purpose whatsoever to infer any causative effect, one way or the other over a curia poll, regarding kiwi consciousness of the orange sociopath. We are so deeply mired in donkey doo-doo under this awful troika it would only be the right wing that had time to even consider the merits or otherwise of a second Trump presidency. What us patently clear for even the most naiive onlooker is that democracy in the states was murdered a very long time ago and we now only bare witness to a charade that those with real power orchestrate every four years. Frighteningly I believe it is happening in all western, so called, democracies

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You're right, Mike, that democracy is in trouble. As one republican senator pointed out a while ago, the US Constitution doesn't use the word 'democracy'. Founding fathers such as Madison didn't really like the idea.

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I would suspect that those "never Trumpers" take all their information from the local media, who in turn take their information from Harris biased networks in the US. Harris's rise is an incredible parallel to the rise of Ardern in NZ, both out of nowhere due to the position they held and the leader stepping down, or in Bidens case was thrown out. Their policies are very similar and looked what happened here in NZ? She it promising to fix the problems that she and Biden caused in the last 4 years as if she had no part in it. Don't just listen to the media, do some research yourselves, look at her backtracking on policies?

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Clearly the kiwis aren’t paying attention to who the orange clown actually is …

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Most of them are paying attention, as there's no shortage of media coverage about him. The question is why that doesn't deter them.

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Well in the US there is a little more news about it all .. and that still doesn’t deter them … with 35 to 40 support .. so we’re doing well over here! But despite the media mentions few in either country are really paying attention .. because there is actually too much and lies work.

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The figures for NZ Firsters are no surprise. They basically want Muldoon's corpse reanimated. And some comparisons were drawn between Trump & Muldoon by a Bloomberg commentator:

Feisty, Protectionist Populism? New Zealand Tried That

Spoiler alert: It didn't end well.

By Tyler Cowen

https://archive.is/2gqI8

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Nice article! It didn't end well indeed. But one take on Muldoon is that he was trying to preserve Keynesian social-democratic arrangement – for all his other faults.

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Soc-dem Keynesianism would still have been possible without Muldoon's hyper-fortress economics.

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Always easier to think who you would vote for when you have no skin in the game. Dame Jacinda very popular with people outside NZ, Trump popular with those who would not personally be bombed back to the dark ages on abortion laws.

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Very good point, thanks Hilary! We can't take those poll numbers on Kiwi supporters of DT too seriously, for the reason you give. It's the rise in numbers that's made me wonder.

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The rise in numbers isn’t just Trump is that Trump has empowered people like himself all over the world .. made them his friends and in turn their supporters are now more open and out to destroy anything that is not ‘their way’.

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