Very good. My only argument is your view on Luxon: I think he is not up to it. Marketing slogans repeated constantly do not amount to policy. Very grating.
Great summary of where things are with this government - and timely. While not popular in their first year, to be fair the coalition are picking up the head winds of increasing voter dissatisfaction/disillusionment in liberal democracies (e.g. the new Labour Government in the UK) and a pretty wobbly global economy. Nor do I think Luxon is out of his depth - I will give him the benefit of the doubt here - but he is definitely as yet to find his stride. Low popularity in the first year doesn't necessarily mean much. E.g. even if one doesn't share Margaret Thatcher's divisive style of politics - and I don't - she was seriously unpopular with her party and the public in the first couple of years, but went on to become a very effective political leader. But Luxon is as yet to demonstrate he can manage this coalition (e.g. Casey Costello) and he is seriously tone-deaf to the concerns of those who are struggling. Luxon and co could learn something from the previous administration - that is in the final analysis what will do for a government is breaking promises. Hypocrisy. Saying you will do something and then not making it happen. The 'Kiwi build' fiasco just never went away for Labour. While Charter schools, new motorways and public service cuts were all promised by the coalition parties in the election campaign (so they are simply following through on what they promised) the reversal on building a new hospital in Dunedin is a biggie. Breaking a promise of this magnitude will not go away and in the context of the woeful state of our health system - that is getting worse and not better - it may well be what sinks this government
Dunedin will still get a new hospital, just not one that’s more expensive by far than those for other parts of NZ. Dunedin is no longer a “main centre”. Hamilton and Tauranga are: Whangarei soon will be.
The current government is by and large delivering on the many promises to fix the problems caused by the last government and they’re sticking to their plans. There have been some speed bumps along the way but they’re gallantly overcoming them and soldiering on regardless.
That's a fair comment, thanks Winsome. The quarterly plans are largely getting methodically ticked off. The coalition agreements meant some compromises were needed. Cheers.
Great sentiment- stop arguing about where to sit in the lifeboat and get rowing! (Although as you've said most of the younger, able-bodied rowers have already left (2 of mine included) - nothing here for them right now or in the foreseeable...)
3 things I think you're missing in your analysis:
- The strong, distasteful smell of "bought and paid for" corruption from guns, tobacco, mining and fossil fuel industries will dog them forever now - there must be a paper trail which the opposition is in possession of - I could certainly see legal cases brought against Costello, McKee and Jones. Luxon's only choice as per the weakly negotiated coalition agreement would be between bringing the house down around him or limping along.
- Winston seems to be readying himself to pull the house down anyway in the middle of next year after he's finished with the DPM slot - utu against Seymour. (ACT and Seymour's reputation will be tarnished by the end of name suppression of former party chair...)
- Labour, while MIA for the last year, are rumoured to have been busy establishing a refreshed platform due for launch in a month or so. Could include some version of a wealth tax and provide a much more coherent alternative in a hastily called election mid-2025...
Very good. My only argument is your view on Luxon: I think he is not up to it. Marketing slogans repeated constantly do not amount to policy. Very grating.
Fair comment thanks Grant!
Great summary of where things are with this government - and timely. While not popular in their first year, to be fair the coalition are picking up the head winds of increasing voter dissatisfaction/disillusionment in liberal democracies (e.g. the new Labour Government in the UK) and a pretty wobbly global economy. Nor do I think Luxon is out of his depth - I will give him the benefit of the doubt here - but he is definitely as yet to find his stride. Low popularity in the first year doesn't necessarily mean much. E.g. even if one doesn't share Margaret Thatcher's divisive style of politics - and I don't - she was seriously unpopular with her party and the public in the first couple of years, but went on to become a very effective political leader. But Luxon is as yet to demonstrate he can manage this coalition (e.g. Casey Costello) and he is seriously tone-deaf to the concerns of those who are struggling. Luxon and co could learn something from the previous administration - that is in the final analysis what will do for a government is breaking promises. Hypocrisy. Saying you will do something and then not making it happen. The 'Kiwi build' fiasco just never went away for Labour. While Charter schools, new motorways and public service cuts were all promised by the coalition parties in the election campaign (so they are simply following through on what they promised) the reversal on building a new hospital in Dunedin is a biggie. Breaking a promise of this magnitude will not go away and in the context of the woeful state of our health system - that is getting worse and not better - it may well be what sinks this government
Great comments, thanks again Mark! Health is looming as a big issue.
Dunedin will still get a new hospital, just not one that’s more expensive by far than those for other parts of NZ. Dunedin is no longer a “main centre”. Hamilton and Tauranga are: Whangarei soon will be.
Thanks for the comment, Max. That's an interesting forecast for those cities!
The current government is by and large delivering on the many promises to fix the problems caused by the last government and they’re sticking to their plans. There have been some speed bumps along the way but they’re gallantly overcoming them and soldiering on regardless.
That's a fair comment, thanks Winsome. The quarterly plans are largely getting methodically ticked off. The coalition agreements meant some compromises were needed. Cheers.
Great sentiment- stop arguing about where to sit in the lifeboat and get rowing! (Although as you've said most of the younger, able-bodied rowers have already left (2 of mine included) - nothing here for them right now or in the foreseeable...)
3 things I think you're missing in your analysis:
- The strong, distasteful smell of "bought and paid for" corruption from guns, tobacco, mining and fossil fuel industries will dog them forever now - there must be a paper trail which the opposition is in possession of - I could certainly see legal cases brought against Costello, McKee and Jones. Luxon's only choice as per the weakly negotiated coalition agreement would be between bringing the house down around him or limping along.
- Winston seems to be readying himself to pull the house down anyway in the middle of next year after he's finished with the DPM slot - utu against Seymour. (ACT and Seymour's reputation will be tarnished by the end of name suppression of former party chair...)
- Labour, while MIA for the last year, are rumoured to have been busy establishing a refreshed platform due for launch in a month or so. Could include some version of a wealth tax and provide a much more coherent alternative in a hastily called election mid-2025...
Very good comments, thanks Ben! You're picking an early election!