This is appallingly sad. I was born after WW2, so in my lifetime it's the one of the worst abuses of dictators, that is Trump and Putin. It's not clear how much the remainder of the West can or will help Ukraine now, so I suspect they are doomed to fall. Then I believe the Russian thugs will indulge in quite a bit of "cleaning up"and recrimination ie: mass executions of the Ukranian military and supporters. And I believe Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, and maybe Poland will be trembling.
Then China and Nth Korea will be emboldened to have a go with their respective claims.
Just one question: are there any decent humans left in the Republican Party? Maybe theres one or two, but reports of death threats against them and family would silence them.
I’m much less glum. Ukraine isn’t doomed, and the U.S. isn’t essential to the outcome.
The real story here isn’t that Ukraine is on the brink, but that Russia is playing a losing hand. (It’s all in the cards, you see.) Russia is outmatched economically, militarily, and in strategic depth. The only thing keeping it afloat is inertia and Western hesitation.
Europe and Ukraine share a clear goal: Russia must fail at its imperial attempt. The U.S. is retreating from Europe, but the natural balancing coalition—Europe, the UK, Ukraine, and likely Canada—still holds overwhelming strength. Their combined GDP is over $24T, compared to Russia’s $2T. Even a sluggish response from Europe is enough to tip the scales.
The war itself reflects this imbalance. The Russian advance is grinding forward at great cost per metre, and their economy is eroding. Right now, the Europeans will fund the Ukrainians. In the medium term, they’ll arm them while expanding their own hard power. In the long run, Ukraine will likely be folded into the European security umbrella—perhaps even as a military backbone.
Putin will rattle the nuclear saber the whole way, but Russia will increasingly find itself not just fighting Ukraine, but toe-to-toe with Europe. Not directly, but in every way short of that.
Trump could throw a wrench in this by easing Russia’s economic isolation, but even then, the fundamentals don’t change: Russia doesn’t have the economic weight to grind Ukraine down while Europe is ramping up its hard power.
The bottom line: Russia’s GDP is tiny compared to the coalition forming against it. Time and economics are on Ukraine’s side, even if the battle will be long and painful.
This is striking at a key fault line in the Republican Party. The MAGA Republicans, about 30% of the electorate, go along with Trump and Tucker Carlson. But the centre right, the approx. 15% who used to be the core of the GOP, are horrified.
America is the goodies, not the baddies. Trump lining America up with Putin and Putin’s Russia? Who invaded Ukraine? Who voted in the UN recently against a motion condemning the Russian invasion, along with Russia, North Korea, Iran and the usual motley crew, and against pretty well all the rest of the world. Kicking NATO to the curb. Trashing alliances, partnerships, arrangements and relationships established over decades, at great cost (and also greater benefit) for Americans. They are spitting.
"Trump lining America up with Putin and Putin’s Russia? Who invaded Ukraine? ..."
"You're either with us or against us" or "black and white thinking" is what has invaded the western world's view on most things left and right; and it looks like you too.
Who invaded Ukraine is not really the question any more than the Palestinian/Gaza affair started on October 7.
If you listen to the full Whitehouse briefing you'll hear Trump saying he's not on Putin's side but he wants to negotiate peace. If you listen to the full briefing it's hard not to come to the conclusion that it was Zelensky who was the key protagonist in the failure in diplomacy, not Trump.
You may well be right about the whole of the interview. I’ve seen comments both ways by others who watched the whole of it as well. My point though is twofold:
Firstly, I do see the administration acting as I outlined, so, yes, guilty as charged I guess.
Second but more importantly, from the channels I’ve seen, that centre right group who are the traditional GOP people, really are spitting. These are not happy campers. There always has been that tension amongst the Republicans, from the early days of Trump’s bid for the presidency. Remember the Never Trumpers. And that is what I pitched in my opening line. “This is striking at a key fault line in the Republican Party.” And it really is.
Yup fault lines are opening up, some want things to stay the same, others want change. Some Tribes are expanding and some are shrinking. Seems to me we are in times of significant change. Change, of this sort, is seldom smooth. Personally I want change, the West using the Ukraine war as a lever to weaken Russia is an astonishingly arrogant stance. Peace needs to be made and if it take a few grown men yelling at each other in public, so be it.
Re your first point if you really think about it the idea that Putin is some megalomaniacal authoritarian dictator who wants to reestablish the glory of the Soviet Union and hence the reason for an "unprovoked invasion" of Ukraine is fantastical. Such a point of view doesn't really align with reality. All you have to do is spend some time listening to Putin and Lavrov speaking at various forums (you only need to listen to say 3 three10 minute interviews of each), listen to a range of commentators (e.g. John Mearsheimer, Jeffrey Sachs) to see that Putin is not an unpopular dictator but in fact the Russian state has a sophisticated apparatus that is broadly supported by the population. In fact these guys make all Western politicians of the last 30 years or more look like fools. They are genuinely cultured, nuanced and moral men that are aimed at protecting Russian interests.
Secondly, I kind of agree. Trump's MAGA have basically wrested control of the Republican party so there are fault lines. I suspect that is why Trump has chosen a variety of "radicals" and is shaking things up as fast as possible to keep the establishment off balance. Given Lindsay Graham, of all people, is now getting behind Trump after Zelensky's performance, shows that "you should not insult the Office of President/USA" irrespective who's in there at the moment. Russiaphobia and US exceptionalism is still alive and well in the Trump administration as it is throughout Republican and Democrat elites and much of the population, just as Western exceptionalism is a symptom of the illness of Western civilisation in general and it's downfall. I look forward to the day that the US and the West in general realise the world needs to be a community of nations under a reformed UN rather than the 20th century Post WWII anachronism of US imperialism.
Malcolm, thanks for sharing your perspective. I want to clarify that when I described America as a force for good, I was laying out the traditional GOP view. That old guard has long seen American power as morally grounded in its enduring alliances and principles, and they’re understandably perturbed by what they view as the populist, destabilizing tactics we see today.
I’m with you on the ideal of a world community of nations resolving issues through the UN and playing by rules that don’t disadvantage the little guy. The tragedies in Vietnam, Angola, Afghanistan, Iraq, the Congo, Sudan, Darfur, and Yemen all serve as stark reminders of our failures—failures driven by disgusting behaviors on all sides, whether it’s Western arrogance, Russian aggression, or the abuses of local big men.
That said, we do see things differently regarding Putin and his administration. I view his regime as a kleptocracy, maintained by a tightly controlled state media and tens of thousands of security personnel reporting directly to him—not to the Duma. Putin did invade Ukraine. Sure, he might offer a cover story like “the other guy made me do it, guv, I had no choice” but the reality is that he invaded and didn’t have the chips to play that game, and it was a serious miscalculation.
I’ve listened to hours of Mearsheimer discussing the NATO expansion—“we promised we wouldn’t move NATO one inch further east, but we did, so it’s our fault”—and I’ve also heard alternative views, which I find persuasive.
I do think that Mearsheimer’s offensive realism model is persuasive for an international order that exists in a state of anarchy. This isn’t just Putin’s world; it looks like Xi’s world too, and it certainly aligns with Trump’s view. To Trump, there are “winner” states and “loser” states, and he sees the USA as having been taken advantage of by Europe and the rules-based order for decades.
Ultimately, the West has been striving for a rules-based order since the end of WWII. While Europe seems poised to continue on that path, it appears the USA is taking a darker diversion for a few years now. And this is precisely where the split in the Republican Party lies: old-school Republicans want rules, NATO, and alliances with the free world, whereas MAGA Republicans want to stop the USA from getting ripped off by everyone else and revert to a straightforward, zones-of-influence approach grounded in offensive realism. These are fundamentally antagonistic views.
What "cause of peace"? Ukraine is fighting genocide: Putin won't stop until he's extirpated Ukrainian nationalism. Now he's got his agent Trump in the White House (not sure about Vance, but it seems he's just a sycophantic toady like Lyndsey Graham. Whatever: these men are the antithesis of statesmen or world leaders) Putin can double down on Ukraine and threaten the Baltic states too. Putin and his siloviki cronies have always reckoned the West is too decadent and feeble to defend itself. Xi Jinping believes the same in Asia-Pacific. Perhaps they are right.
Let’s get back to basics and look at how the Budapest Memorandum signed by the USA and Russia among others gave security guarantees to the Ukraine. Once again USA is proving to be an unreliable ally, and in this instance unpredictability based on the whims of an ego driven President totally unfit to lead a great power and enabled by others within the Republican Party who have their own agendas. Unfortunately collective memory only lasts a generation and the pre-WWI and pre WW2 periods of extreme jingoism, social dislocation and rise of authoritarian leaders is forgotten by the young men turning to right wing authoritarianism in many countries around the world. They will be the cannon and drone fodder of Putin’s imperial ambitions. Meanwhile President Bonespurs will continue his performative bullying on the world stage surrounded by his court of sycophants chosen for their blind fealty. No doubt the reality for Ukraine is a diminished country and a need for a secure peace but Trump’s transactional USA will not deliver either. Putin is playing Trump and no doubt will be emboldened to seek further advances in the Baltics and beyond through hybrid warfare. Evidence of Trumps clown like diplomacy is clear from his staged meetings with Kim Jung-il . Results zero.
Thanks for the comments, Philip. That exchange in the Oval Office revealed that Trump is much kinder to Putin, the aggressor, than to Zelenskyy. The latter's domestic audience is rallying behind him, I gather. Meanwhile Trump must be mad that he hasn't got his hands on Ukraine's minerals, and Putin can carry on attacking. A bad outcome.
Read the history Grant. Peace will have to be negotiated on both sides ie Russia / Ukraine but also among the world powers interfering in this conflict for their own global agendas
You don't seem to have a very strong evidence base for your opinions on this one Grant - perhaps you should stick to domestic politics where your analysis is a lot more solid. Your assertion that Putin is the aggressor is your opinion (admittedly common in the west) not fact. I'd be interested in what evidence you believe makes the case. To me it's clear that Ukraine has tragically suffered from a lack of a cohesive, shared vision of its future which has led to the domination of it by extreme right wing nationalist forces that have harboured a hatred of Russian identity (that word Identity raises its ugly head again) which, given a strong Russian ethnic population exists within the country has led to civil war (Go figure - how smart was that?). The evidence is overwhelming that the US has exploited this (since at least 2007 and earlier) to drive a wedge into Russia. This combination of extreme nationalism ("Nazism" with Russian identity as the enemy as opposed to Jewish) AND US imperial meddling - in order to break up Russia so that US private interests can take over Russia's stupendous riches in rare earth minerals, Gas, Oil is the root cause of the conflict. The idea that Putin is a meglomaniac trying to reestablish a greater Russian empire is a simplistic fantasy of Western exceptionalists to try and rationalise one's own Russiaphobia - Similar arguments apply to the current Sinophobia we are witnessing. Basically we're a bunch of rascist a...holes.
I am very aware of USA history both prior to and after WW2, the Cold War, Truman, the propping up of dictators and the active undermine of legitimate governments by the CIA. I have also read a variety of interpretations of American geopolitics through the 50s-70s. I have also read J K Galbraith’s critiques and elaborations on the military industrial complex. None of this deflects from Putin’s Imperialism or the clear imperative that he as a dictator has to show strength overseas to legitimise his actions in the Ukraine and beyond. Including, but not limited to the Caucasus which I have travelled in and interacted with locals with different views of Russia. ( Also note Syria and North Africa). There is nothing in these actions that suggest a benign desire or intention to curb his expansionist strategies and tactics. Similarly, I travelled frequently to China through the nineties and early 2000s and see that country as asserting its great power status, including a desire throw off the limits imposed by the USA and to reestablish its rightful place as Zhongguo (中國) Trump’s bumbling bully boy tactics shortens the time frame for both these goals to be achieved. This is a reality of the history of great powers, especially those with a totalitarian form of government. Neither Putin or Xi are offering a new benevolent future or a hand of friendship. Of course an emboldened Trump is no different. Although, he is a tragic caricature thrust on the world by ordinary people who have been left behind by successive governments and are searching for a messianic leader to deliver them from evil. I do wonder about your stated belief in this magical third way.
Good grief. You seem wedded to the outdated 20th century post WWII reality of USA being the world superpower (ironically built on the back of both a large industrial capability and essentially financing/profiting from both WW1 and WW2) and winning the war against Soviet communism to become the world hegemon with "full spectrum dominance"- unstated but definitely US imperialism. What kind of vision is that for the world? Sounds like tyranny to me. Go read the Wolfowitz Doctrine for details. Hideous in my opinion. You appear to have accepted this doctrine as "natural" and are projecting this unimaginative view of the world onto Putin without any real evidence. If you read and listen to what Putin, Lavrov et al (and similarly China, Wang Yi) are saying they are pointing towards a "third way" that is not stuck in 20th century thinking. You should take a closer look.
Oh dear Zelenskyy good, Trump bad, putin evil. A comic book would come up with more nuance. The US has poured hundreds of billions of dollars into this war for years and nothing has changed other than a million deaths. Something has to happen to stop this war. Maybe a wild card like Trump will succeed and yes that would really piss off the Dems and the trump haters.
Ever notice how those who whined about perceived loss of freedoms in the West under COVID, also tend to be the ones who'd welcome an authoritarian strongman like Putin?
No but the thing no one in the west seems to want to recognise is that the West has been strategically defeated in Ukraine by Russia. That's why Trump has the sense to try and get out quick.
If the entire west + US can't defeat Russia in Ukraine then they certainly won't without US support.
Zelensky, other Ukranian nationalists and Western elites just haven't woken up to the reality is that Russia is winning the war and the longer it goes on the more lives and land will be lost. That's pretty much obvious at this point to anyone with some objectivity.
I share the assumption that Russia can't be expelled from Ukraine now and that the aim should be peace, as in the subtitle. Today's events did not help to end conflict.
I’d say more like Putin evil, Zelenskyy strong, and Trump mostly irrelevant.
The U.S. has put about $100B into this war, mostly in clapped-out, near-obsolescent gear, with a trickle of truly sharp weapons and intelligence support. Meanwhile, Russia is burning through the last of its Soviet-era rust buckets. Even with help from North Korea (North Korea?!!), artillery is nearing parity across much of the front.
The real shift will come when Europe—shoved in at the deep end by Trump—steps up. Not quickly, but comprehensively.
John, with respect, your hope for Europe stepping up is fantasy. The war in Ukraine is one of attrition. I don't know where you get the idea that the artillery is nearing parity as the evidence suggests its now much closer to 7-10 to 1 in Russia's favour. Figures for dead/wounded are hard to be sure about - the best indicators are the number of dead being swapped between Russia and Ukraine and that is also about 7 to 1 in Russia's favour. I can provide references as necessary.
It's also a fact that the Ukranians have been very committed fighters and had years to dig in (they have been building up their capability with NATO help since around 2008) so that by the time the 2022 war started they had the largest, best equiped army in Europe with somewhere around 500,000 soldiers. You will recall Western reports at one point (in 2022 when Russia was in retreat) that the Russians were fighting with spades and shovels. This just shows what utter nonsense our western MSM are prepared to promulgate in the name of propaganda. The trouble is that the reality on the ground in 2025 (and it long has been) that Russia are making steady gains across the entire front line (that's over 1000km!).
The reality is the US realise they have lost the war; Russia is winning/will win and as a consequence they are getting out as fast as possible. Its called REALISM.
i.e. The west got caught up in the fantasy that a) Putin was an unpopular authoritarian and b) they could destabilise Putin's govt by harsh sanctions.
This was a delusion. Putin is not unpopular at home and the Russian economy has a much larger industrial capability (and resources) and ability to mobilise them than the west anticipated.
Of course the reason they could mobilise such resources is the fact that they felt very much existentially threatened by NATO enlargement to include Ukraine. The whole nuclear balance of power/MAD dimension to this conflict has been erased/downplayed from Western consideration; another self delusion.
Given Russia are winning with US, European (NATO) help, given US withdraw (and they are by far and away the most powerful/wealthy country in the alliance) how can you possibly think Europe can make up for the loss? The weapons are depleted, their industrial capacity to produce more is limited and will take YEARS to build up even if they had the money and will to do so. In spite of what they say Europe is NOT existentially threatened by Russia so they do not have the motivation to mobilise. Their economies and political systems are pretty dysfunctional. Ironically the US has aided in their economic collapse by bombing the Nordstream pipeline and depriving Europe of cheap Gas from Russia etc.
If the war is not ended soon Russia could well end up taking Odessa and landlocking the western part of Ukraine leaving a rump state that a) will never be permitted to join NATO and remain neutral, b) never be allowed a very large military capability and c) will not be permitted to discriminate on the basis of ethnic identity.
Again the US understands this so the sooner it can be wrapped up the better. The longer the West (and that might mean Europe if US go) persist with their fantasy the more Ukrainian lives and land will be lost.
The only realistic alternative is WW3 and nuclear armageddon.
Well that certainly sounds like a cold shower on the msm. And I’d be happy to drown them in a bathtub, so we do see eye to eye on how we value them.
The other things are fact-related. We won’t have to wait long to see how this thing plays out. I’d say we will have clarity by the end of 2025 myself.
Will Europe step up? Can they? Can Putin hold Russia together? Can they at least tidy up the 4 oblasts they claim in Ukraine? And where will the USA fit into all of this? It’s going to be interesting.
The thing the western stalwarts seem to be be prepared to overlook (or blame Trump for) is that why would the US (even with Trump as President) want to sue for peace and not proceed to decisive victory given all the money they've already put in? You guessed it - they've been strategically defeated.
Alternatively Trump is a naive, Putin puppet. Hmm which is more likely?
Brace yourself: Western hegemony (and the US century was the 20th) is in its sunset phase (but it will remain a Great Power and foolishly will still attempt to regain global hegemony rather than settle for a community of nations). Let's watch and see!
I’m very positive about the USA. It is still climbing in power imo. Russia’s GDP is too small. Sure it has a glorious past, but I think those days are behind it. China is on a tear. Bumps along the road, yes, but China, the USA and maybe Europe if it gets its act together are the power centres that will dominate.
In an odd way Europe should kiss the ground Trump walks on for giving them a good kick up the arse. They have their opportunity. It is up to them to take it.
Anyway, thanks for your considered interactions with me.
Also coming to mind is a quote from Eldridge Cleaver in 1968, when America leapt into Vietnam before it looked: "It is not an overstatement to say that the destiny of the entire human race depends on what is going on in America today. This is a staggering reality to the rest of the world; they must feel like passengers in a supersonic jet liner who are forced to watch helplessly while a passel of drunks, hypes, freaks, and madmen fight for the controls and the pilot's seat."
It does seem clear that the Soviets cultivated him—not in the sense of him scribbling reports in Sharpie for a handler, but by listening, flattering, and feeding him a worldview that aligned with his instincts.
That full-page ad he took out in 1987? Practically a written declaration of this.
To Trump, the world is simple: “killers” and “losers”, “winners” and “suckers” as the lens for people, organisations and states. That was his ruthless father’s view, and it was the world he manoeuvred through in New York’s crime-controlled construction industry. See my post on this: The Don Framework https://open.substack.com/pub/johnbaker768156/p/the-don-framework?r=294g0v&utm_medium=ios
This made him the perfect vessel for a Soviet drip-feed. The idea that the “international rules-based order” was a scam? Obvious. That the U.S. was being played, tricked into wasting resources on ungrateful allies? Crystal clear.
He didn’t need to be an ‘agent’—just a man whose worldview could be organised in the general way they wanted. And he deeply believes it.
So Russia and USA share the spoils of war. Trump and Putin and billionaire mates from all sides of the fence should be exiled to St Helena with sacks of Monopoly money because really they are the real problem ,
This is appallingly sad. I was born after WW2, so in my lifetime it's the one of the worst abuses of dictators, that is Trump and Putin. It's not clear how much the remainder of the West can or will help Ukraine now, so I suspect they are doomed to fall. Then I believe the Russian thugs will indulge in quite a bit of "cleaning up"and recrimination ie: mass executions of the Ukranian military and supporters. And I believe Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, and maybe Poland will be trembling.
Then China and Nth Korea will be emboldened to have a go with their respective claims.
Just one question: are there any decent humans left in the Republican Party? Maybe theres one or two, but reports of death threats against them and family would silence them.
I’m much less glum. Ukraine isn’t doomed, and the U.S. isn’t essential to the outcome.
The real story here isn’t that Ukraine is on the brink, but that Russia is playing a losing hand. (It’s all in the cards, you see.) Russia is outmatched economically, militarily, and in strategic depth. The only thing keeping it afloat is inertia and Western hesitation.
Europe and Ukraine share a clear goal: Russia must fail at its imperial attempt. The U.S. is retreating from Europe, but the natural balancing coalition—Europe, the UK, Ukraine, and likely Canada—still holds overwhelming strength. Their combined GDP is over $24T, compared to Russia’s $2T. Even a sluggish response from Europe is enough to tip the scales.
The war itself reflects this imbalance. The Russian advance is grinding forward at great cost per metre, and their economy is eroding. Right now, the Europeans will fund the Ukrainians. In the medium term, they’ll arm them while expanding their own hard power. In the long run, Ukraine will likely be folded into the European security umbrella—perhaps even as a military backbone.
Putin will rattle the nuclear saber the whole way, but Russia will increasingly find itself not just fighting Ukraine, but toe-to-toe with Europe. Not directly, but in every way short of that.
Trump could throw a wrench in this by easing Russia’s economic isolation, but even then, the fundamentals don’t change: Russia doesn’t have the economic weight to grind Ukraine down while Europe is ramping up its hard power.
The bottom line: Russia’s GDP is tiny compared to the coalition forming against it. Time and economics are on Ukraine’s side, even if the battle will be long and painful.
The logjam obstructing the release of frozen Russian assets needs to be cleared.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-could-concede-300-bln-frozen-assets-part-ukraine-war-settlement-sources-2025-02-21/
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/the-uk-is-using-frozen-russian-assets-to-give-ukraine-the-weapons-to-defeat-putin_uk_67c4033ae4b0b29677213081
From that piece: “Russia has previously said plans to use the funds in Ukraine amounted to robbery.”
This is striking at a key fault line in the Republican Party. The MAGA Republicans, about 30% of the electorate, go along with Trump and Tucker Carlson. But the centre right, the approx. 15% who used to be the core of the GOP, are horrified.
America is the goodies, not the baddies. Trump lining America up with Putin and Putin’s Russia? Who invaded Ukraine? Who voted in the UN recently against a motion condemning the Russian invasion, along with Russia, North Korea, Iran and the usual motley crew, and against pretty well all the rest of the world. Kicking NATO to the curb. Trashing alliances, partnerships, arrangements and relationships established over decades, at great cost (and also greater benefit) for Americans. They are spitting.
More nonsense
Yo Malcolm! I like a nice crisp response!
Why?
"Trump lining America up with Putin and Putin’s Russia? Who invaded Ukraine? ..."
"You're either with us or against us" or "black and white thinking" is what has invaded the western world's view on most things left and right; and it looks like you too.
Who invaded Ukraine is not really the question any more than the Palestinian/Gaza affair started on October 7.
If you listen to the full Whitehouse briefing you'll hear Trump saying he's not on Putin's side but he wants to negotiate peace. If you listen to the full briefing it's hard not to come to the conclusion that it was Zelensky who was the key protagonist in the failure in diplomacy, not Trump.
Try watching it and see for yourself.
You may well be right about the whole of the interview. I’ve seen comments both ways by others who watched the whole of it as well. My point though is twofold:
Firstly, I do see the administration acting as I outlined, so, yes, guilty as charged I guess.
Second but more importantly, from the channels I’ve seen, that centre right group who are the traditional GOP people, really are spitting. These are not happy campers. There always has been that tension amongst the Republicans, from the early days of Trump’s bid for the presidency. Remember the Never Trumpers. And that is what I pitched in my opening line. “This is striking at a key fault line in the Republican Party.” And it really is.
Yup fault lines are opening up, some want things to stay the same, others want change. Some Tribes are expanding and some are shrinking. Seems to me we are in times of significant change. Change, of this sort, is seldom smooth. Personally I want change, the West using the Ukraine war as a lever to weaken Russia is an astonishingly arrogant stance. Peace needs to be made and if it take a few grown men yelling at each other in public, so be it.
Re your first point if you really think about it the idea that Putin is some megalomaniacal authoritarian dictator who wants to reestablish the glory of the Soviet Union and hence the reason for an "unprovoked invasion" of Ukraine is fantastical. Such a point of view doesn't really align with reality. All you have to do is spend some time listening to Putin and Lavrov speaking at various forums (you only need to listen to say 3 three10 minute interviews of each), listen to a range of commentators (e.g. John Mearsheimer, Jeffrey Sachs) to see that Putin is not an unpopular dictator but in fact the Russian state has a sophisticated apparatus that is broadly supported by the population. In fact these guys make all Western politicians of the last 30 years or more look like fools. They are genuinely cultured, nuanced and moral men that are aimed at protecting Russian interests.
Secondly, I kind of agree. Trump's MAGA have basically wrested control of the Republican party so there are fault lines. I suspect that is why Trump has chosen a variety of "radicals" and is shaking things up as fast as possible to keep the establishment off balance. Given Lindsay Graham, of all people, is now getting behind Trump after Zelensky's performance, shows that "you should not insult the Office of President/USA" irrespective who's in there at the moment. Russiaphobia and US exceptionalism is still alive and well in the Trump administration as it is throughout Republican and Democrat elites and much of the population, just as Western exceptionalism is a symptom of the illness of Western civilisation in general and it's downfall. I look forward to the day that the US and the West in general realise the world needs to be a community of nations under a reformed UN rather than the 20th century Post WWII anachronism of US imperialism.
Malcolm, thanks for sharing your perspective. I want to clarify that when I described America as a force for good, I was laying out the traditional GOP view. That old guard has long seen American power as morally grounded in its enduring alliances and principles, and they’re understandably perturbed by what they view as the populist, destabilizing tactics we see today.
I’m with you on the ideal of a world community of nations resolving issues through the UN and playing by rules that don’t disadvantage the little guy. The tragedies in Vietnam, Angola, Afghanistan, Iraq, the Congo, Sudan, Darfur, and Yemen all serve as stark reminders of our failures—failures driven by disgusting behaviors on all sides, whether it’s Western arrogance, Russian aggression, or the abuses of local big men.
That said, we do see things differently regarding Putin and his administration. I view his regime as a kleptocracy, maintained by a tightly controlled state media and tens of thousands of security personnel reporting directly to him—not to the Duma. Putin did invade Ukraine. Sure, he might offer a cover story like “the other guy made me do it, guv, I had no choice” but the reality is that he invaded and didn’t have the chips to play that game, and it was a serious miscalculation.
I’ve listened to hours of Mearsheimer discussing the NATO expansion—“we promised we wouldn’t move NATO one inch further east, but we did, so it’s our fault”—and I’ve also heard alternative views, which I find persuasive.
I do think that Mearsheimer’s offensive realism model is persuasive for an international order that exists in a state of anarchy. This isn’t just Putin’s world; it looks like Xi’s world too, and it certainly aligns with Trump’s view. To Trump, there are “winner” states and “loser” states, and he sees the USA as having been taken advantage of by Europe and the rules-based order for decades.
Ultimately, the West has been striving for a rules-based order since the end of WWII. While Europe seems poised to continue on that path, it appears the USA is taking a darker diversion for a few years now. And this is precisely where the split in the Republican Party lies: old-school Republicans want rules, NATO, and alliances with the free world, whereas MAGA Republicans want to stop the USA from getting ripped off by everyone else and revert to a straightforward, zones-of-influence approach grounded in offensive realism. These are fundamentally antagonistic views.
Amen. I’m with you.
What "cause of peace"? Ukraine is fighting genocide: Putin won't stop until he's extirpated Ukrainian nationalism. Now he's got his agent Trump in the White House (not sure about Vance, but it seems he's just a sycophantic toady like Lyndsey Graham. Whatever: these men are the antithesis of statesmen or world leaders) Putin can double down on Ukraine and threaten the Baltic states too. Putin and his siloviki cronies have always reckoned the West is too decadent and feeble to defend itself. Xi Jinping believes the same in Asia-Pacific. Perhaps they are right.
Even more nonsense. Grant I'm dissapointed that you've finally shown your ideological roots and it ain't realistic
Agreed. Time to think outside the propaganda and read the wider history.
Let’s get back to basics and look at how the Budapest Memorandum signed by the USA and Russia among others gave security guarantees to the Ukraine. Once again USA is proving to be an unreliable ally, and in this instance unpredictability based on the whims of an ego driven President totally unfit to lead a great power and enabled by others within the Republican Party who have their own agendas. Unfortunately collective memory only lasts a generation and the pre-WWI and pre WW2 periods of extreme jingoism, social dislocation and rise of authoritarian leaders is forgotten by the young men turning to right wing authoritarianism in many countries around the world. They will be the cannon and drone fodder of Putin’s imperial ambitions. Meanwhile President Bonespurs will continue his performative bullying on the world stage surrounded by his court of sycophants chosen for their blind fealty. No doubt the reality for Ukraine is a diminished country and a need for a secure peace but Trump’s transactional USA will not deliver either. Putin is playing Trump and no doubt will be emboldened to seek further advances in the Baltics and beyond through hybrid warfare. Evidence of Trumps clown like diplomacy is clear from his staged meetings with Kim Jung-il . Results zero.
Thanks for the comments, Philip. That exchange in the Oval Office revealed that Trump is much kinder to Putin, the aggressor, than to Zelenskyy. The latter's domestic audience is rallying behind him, I gather. Meanwhile Trump must be mad that he hasn't got his hands on Ukraine's minerals, and Putin can carry on attacking. A bad outcome.
Read the history Grant. Peace will have to be negotiated on both sides ie Russia / Ukraine but also among the world powers interfering in this conflict for their own global agendas
I’ve read it thanks
You don't seem to have a very strong evidence base for your opinions on this one Grant - perhaps you should stick to domestic politics where your analysis is a lot more solid. Your assertion that Putin is the aggressor is your opinion (admittedly common in the west) not fact. I'd be interested in what evidence you believe makes the case. To me it's clear that Ukraine has tragically suffered from a lack of a cohesive, shared vision of its future which has led to the domination of it by extreme right wing nationalist forces that have harboured a hatred of Russian identity (that word Identity raises its ugly head again) which, given a strong Russian ethnic population exists within the country has led to civil war (Go figure - how smart was that?). The evidence is overwhelming that the US has exploited this (since at least 2007 and earlier) to drive a wedge into Russia. This combination of extreme nationalism ("Nazism" with Russian identity as the enemy as opposed to Jewish) AND US imperial meddling - in order to break up Russia so that US private interests can take over Russia's stupendous riches in rare earth minerals, Gas, Oil is the root cause of the conflict. The idea that Putin is a meglomaniac trying to reestablish a greater Russian empire is a simplistic fantasy of Western exceptionalists to try and rationalise one's own Russiaphobia - Similar arguments apply to the current Sinophobia we are witnessing. Basically we're a bunch of rascist a...holes.
I’m aware of all that too thank you
I am very aware of USA history both prior to and after WW2, the Cold War, Truman, the propping up of dictators and the active undermine of legitimate governments by the CIA. I have also read a variety of interpretations of American geopolitics through the 50s-70s. I have also read J K Galbraith’s critiques and elaborations on the military industrial complex. None of this deflects from Putin’s Imperialism or the clear imperative that he as a dictator has to show strength overseas to legitimise his actions in the Ukraine and beyond. Including, but not limited to the Caucasus which I have travelled in and interacted with locals with different views of Russia. ( Also note Syria and North Africa). There is nothing in these actions that suggest a benign desire or intention to curb his expansionist strategies and tactics. Similarly, I travelled frequently to China through the nineties and early 2000s and see that country as asserting its great power status, including a desire throw off the limits imposed by the USA and to reestablish its rightful place as Zhongguo (中國) Trump’s bumbling bully boy tactics shortens the time frame for both these goals to be achieved. This is a reality of the history of great powers, especially those with a totalitarian form of government. Neither Putin or Xi are offering a new benevolent future or a hand of friendship. Of course an emboldened Trump is no different. Although, he is a tragic caricature thrust on the world by ordinary people who have been left behind by successive governments and are searching for a messianic leader to deliver them from evil. I do wonder about your stated belief in this magical third way.
Good grief. You seem wedded to the outdated 20th century post WWII reality of USA being the world superpower (ironically built on the back of both a large industrial capability and essentially financing/profiting from both WW1 and WW2) and winning the war against Soviet communism to become the world hegemon with "full spectrum dominance"- unstated but definitely US imperialism. What kind of vision is that for the world? Sounds like tyranny to me. Go read the Wolfowitz Doctrine for details. Hideous in my opinion. You appear to have accepted this doctrine as "natural" and are projecting this unimaginative view of the world onto Putin without any real evidence. If you read and listen to what Putin, Lavrov et al (and similarly China, Wang Yi) are saying they are pointing towards a "third way" that is not stuck in 20th century thinking. You should take a closer look.
Oh dear Zelenskyy good, Trump bad, putin evil. A comic book would come up with more nuance. The US has poured hundreds of billions of dollars into this war for years and nothing has changed other than a million deaths. Something has to happen to stop this war. Maybe a wild card like Trump will succeed and yes that would really piss off the Dems and the trump haters.
Trump wasn’t a success at stopping the war today. Maybe tomorrow.
Give the "King" a break! he has to finish the wall first, You recall, the one that Mexico was going to pay for.
Ever notice how those who whined about perceived loss of freedoms in the West under COVID, also tend to be the ones who'd welcome an authoritarian strongman like Putin?
Oh yeah. Like those people who still accuse Jacinda of being a dictator 😂
And who still somehow think she's PM. Or pulling strings a la George Soros.
No never noticed that, at all.
No but the thing no one in the west seems to want to recognise is that the West has been strategically defeated in Ukraine by Russia. That's why Trump has the sense to try and get out quick.
If the entire west + US can't defeat Russia in Ukraine then they certainly won't without US support.
Zelensky, other Ukranian nationalists and Western elites just haven't woken up to the reality is that Russia is winning the war and the longer it goes on the more lives and land will be lost. That's pretty much obvious at this point to anyone with some objectivity.
I share the assumption that Russia can't be expelled from Ukraine now and that the aim should be peace, as in the subtitle. Today's events did not help to end conflict.
Agree but it's also clear that Zelensky is not part of a peace solution
I’d say more like Putin evil, Zelenskyy strong, and Trump mostly irrelevant.
The U.S. has put about $100B into this war, mostly in clapped-out, near-obsolescent gear, with a trickle of truly sharp weapons and intelligence support. Meanwhile, Russia is burning through the last of its Soviet-era rust buckets. Even with help from North Korea (North Korea?!!), artillery is nearing parity across much of the front.
The real shift will come when Europe—shoved in at the deep end by Trump—steps up. Not quickly, but comprehensively.
John, with respect, your hope for Europe stepping up is fantasy. The war in Ukraine is one of attrition. I don't know where you get the idea that the artillery is nearing parity as the evidence suggests its now much closer to 7-10 to 1 in Russia's favour. Figures for dead/wounded are hard to be sure about - the best indicators are the number of dead being swapped between Russia and Ukraine and that is also about 7 to 1 in Russia's favour. I can provide references as necessary.
It's also a fact that the Ukranians have been very committed fighters and had years to dig in (they have been building up their capability with NATO help since around 2008) so that by the time the 2022 war started they had the largest, best equiped army in Europe with somewhere around 500,000 soldiers. You will recall Western reports at one point (in 2022 when Russia was in retreat) that the Russians were fighting with spades and shovels. This just shows what utter nonsense our western MSM are prepared to promulgate in the name of propaganda. The trouble is that the reality on the ground in 2025 (and it long has been) that Russia are making steady gains across the entire front line (that's over 1000km!).
The reality is the US realise they have lost the war; Russia is winning/will win and as a consequence they are getting out as fast as possible. Its called REALISM.
i.e. The west got caught up in the fantasy that a) Putin was an unpopular authoritarian and b) they could destabilise Putin's govt by harsh sanctions.
This was a delusion. Putin is not unpopular at home and the Russian economy has a much larger industrial capability (and resources) and ability to mobilise them than the west anticipated.
Of course the reason they could mobilise such resources is the fact that they felt very much existentially threatened by NATO enlargement to include Ukraine. The whole nuclear balance of power/MAD dimension to this conflict has been erased/downplayed from Western consideration; another self delusion.
Given Russia are winning with US, European (NATO) help, given US withdraw (and they are by far and away the most powerful/wealthy country in the alliance) how can you possibly think Europe can make up for the loss? The weapons are depleted, their industrial capacity to produce more is limited and will take YEARS to build up even if they had the money and will to do so. In spite of what they say Europe is NOT existentially threatened by Russia so they do not have the motivation to mobilise. Their economies and political systems are pretty dysfunctional. Ironically the US has aided in their economic collapse by bombing the Nordstream pipeline and depriving Europe of cheap Gas from Russia etc.
If the war is not ended soon Russia could well end up taking Odessa and landlocking the western part of Ukraine leaving a rump state that a) will never be permitted to join NATO and remain neutral, b) never be allowed a very large military capability and c) will not be permitted to discriminate on the basis of ethnic identity.
Again the US understands this so the sooner it can be wrapped up the better. The longer the West (and that might mean Europe if US go) persist with their fantasy the more Ukrainian lives and land will be lost.
The only realistic alternative is WW3 and nuclear armageddon.
Well that certainly sounds like a cold shower on the msm. And I’d be happy to drown them in a bathtub, so we do see eye to eye on how we value them.
The other things are fact-related. We won’t have to wait long to see how this thing plays out. I’d say we will have clarity by the end of 2025 myself.
Will Europe step up? Can they? Can Putin hold Russia together? Can they at least tidy up the 4 oblasts they claim in Ukraine? And where will the USA fit into all of this? It’s going to be interesting.
Agreed. 2025 will bring further clarity.
The thing the western stalwarts seem to be be prepared to overlook (or blame Trump for) is that why would the US (even with Trump as President) want to sue for peace and not proceed to decisive victory given all the money they've already put in? You guessed it - they've been strategically defeated.
Alternatively Trump is a naive, Putin puppet. Hmm which is more likely?
Brace yourself: Western hegemony (and the US century was the 20th) is in its sunset phase (but it will remain a Great Power and foolishly will still attempt to regain global hegemony rather than settle for a community of nations). Let's watch and see!
I’m very positive about the USA. It is still climbing in power imo. Russia’s GDP is too small. Sure it has a glorious past, but I think those days are behind it. China is on a tear. Bumps along the road, yes, but China, the USA and maybe Europe if it gets its act together are the power centres that will dominate.
In an odd way Europe should kiss the ground Trump walks on for giving them a good kick up the arse. They have their opportunity. It is up to them to take it.
Anyway, thanks for your considered interactions with me.
If this is proven correct, then Putin really has been playing the long game with the Americans...
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/kgb-spy-russia/
Also coming to mind is a quote from Eldridge Cleaver in 1968, when America leapt into Vietnam before it looked: "It is not an overstatement to say that the destiny of the entire human race depends on what is going on in America today. This is a staggering reality to the rest of the world; they must feel like passengers in a supersonic jet liner who are forced to watch helplessly while a passel of drunks, hypes, freaks, and madmen fight for the controls and the pilot's seat."
https://artsandculture.google.com/story/jAVxnXYA9JIVKA
Luke Harding’s Collusion in 2017 collected a lot of evidence
I agree.
It does seem clear that the Soviets cultivated him—not in the sense of him scribbling reports in Sharpie for a handler, but by listening, flattering, and feeding him a worldview that aligned with his instincts.
That full-page ad he took out in 1987? Practically a written declaration of this.
To Trump, the world is simple: “killers” and “losers”, “winners” and “suckers” as the lens for people, organisations and states. That was his ruthless father’s view, and it was the world he manoeuvred through in New York’s crime-controlled construction industry. See my post on this: The Don Framework https://open.substack.com/pub/johnbaker768156/p/the-don-framework?r=294g0v&utm_medium=ios
This made him the perfect vessel for a Soviet drip-feed. The idea that the “international rules-based order” was a scam? Obvious. That the U.S. was being played, tricked into wasting resources on ungrateful allies? Crystal clear.
He didn’t need to be an ‘agent’—just a man whose worldview could be organised in the general way they wanted. And he deeply believes it.
Retire US general Flynn nails the background
https://open.substack.com/pub/genflynn/p/president-trumps-final-break-with?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2ripe
So Russia and USA share the spoils of war. Trump and Putin and billionaire mates from all sides of the fence should be exiled to St Helena with sacks of Monopoly money because really they are the real problem ,