US on knife-edge
An election in which most of the people lose
Don’t ask me who’ll win the election for US president. The polling nerds are seeing a 50/50 toss-up at the moment. And Americans must be the most polled population on the planet. It’s looking so tight that a rainy day in Georgia could switch the outcome.
What actually happens on 5 November could replicate the closeness of the opinion polls, or not. The polls have been inaccurate in the past, in particular because Trump voters may have been more reluctant to respond to opinion polls. Then again, underestimation of Harris is also a possibility. Pollsters and polling analysts like Nate Silver (see NZ Herald, paywalled) do their best, but we won’t know how accurate they were until we see actual election results – by which time the question will be purely academic.
Right now, the Democrats are panicking. Robert Reich is a former US secretary of labour under Bill Clinton and now professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley, writing for the Guardian. He’s ringing alarm bells and blaming oligarchs like Rupert Murdoch and Elon Musk for stoking the fire. He wonders why so many Americans can support Trump. One reason he offers is:
“…many Americans would prefer blowing up the system as a whole – destroying democracy and our institutions of self-government – than settle for gradual change because they feel the system is hopelessly rigged against them”. (Italics added.)
How irresponsible of them for voting at all. But let’s take those italicised words seriously for a moment.
After-tax household-income inequality in the US is one of the highest in the OECD, and it’s higher than it was when Bill Clinton was president. Although the nominal average hourly wage has been rising, prices have risen too, and many Americans complain (not always realistically) about the cost of living. The economic headlines about growth have been good, but that doesn’t translate positively into everyone’s lived experiences.
It’s how voters feel that counts. And governments don’t always do what the majority of people want. Policies supported by most Americans (concerning, for example, the electoral system and healthcare) often don’t get implemented because vested interests stand in the way. Others may get implemented if they happen also to be supported by the most wealthy and powerful Americans.
The “gradual change” that Reich wants his fellow Americans to “settle for” may not be working for the common good. The US poverty rate is comparatively high; middle-class aspirants struggle to realise their dreams; anger and desperation take over. Billions are spent on other people’s wars. He asks people to settle for less, in effect. Stop complaining and just vote for Harris.
Reich’s column illustrates how people can get so wrapped up in their own beliefs, and so desperate to defeat their opponents, that they don’t notice what they reveal about themselves.
American “democracy” isn’t all that democratic, I’m afraid. The vast majority of people have little knowledge of, involvement in or influence over public policy. To win an election, your campaign must be financed by oligarchs to whom you’ll be beholden.
In economic and political terms, the system actually is rigged against ordinary people. There’s evidence to support that, and yet Democrats haven’t tried to reform the system while in office.
Harris made things worse by calling Trump a “fascist”, as it implies that undecided voters must be fools or proto-fascists for even thinking of voting for him. While this may stoke righteous indignation among party faithful, it may also be another “deplorables” moment.
A Trump presidency won’t address the root causes of inequality either. His tariffs will backfire on Americans. And “no tax on tips” is as good as “Let them eat cake”, especially if he cuts taxes for the rich too.
Trump’s lies about the 2020 election should have been enough to disabuse people of any trust in him – but instead many chose to believe him. It appears to give them some satisfaction to “blow up the system as a whole” by voting for a bullet-dodging “non-politician”.
There are more losers than winners in this election, regardless of the outcome.
Politico.
Very interesting. Whatever happens the whole world seems to be at a crossroad. It could just be that the war in Israel marks a fundamental shift in global thinking that acts as a wakeup call for the Western world. A Trump presidency may be part of that. Then perhaps we may see a re-examination of our attitudes towards Islam and the UN.
Robert Reich uses hyperbole to make his case. Either that or he is an unhinged left winger. But essentially you are correct, Trump voters are unhappy with their lot and Trump is their champion. Not a lot of logic there but there’s certainly heaps of emotion. But ask yourself, was Jacndamania logical?